Ecological Carrying Capacity Of Petrochemical Industry In Ecologically Fragile Areas

Petrochemical industry, one of the most serious contaminative industrials, produces many kinds of pollutants during the process of production. The construction and development of petrochemical industry in regional fragile ecosystem will have harmful effects on ecosystem health. In this study, we focused on the issue of keeping good ecosystem health along with petrochemical industry development. As a case study, according on the basic informations the ecological carrying capacity (ECC) for the typical industrial area of Yanlian- Yangzhuang River in Loess Plateau was studied. At the same time, the main reasons which caused decreasing of the regional ECC were analyzed. Furthermore, the regional ECC during the coming 15 years was forecasted.The main results of the study are as follows:(1) Analysis the feature and reasons of the ecosystem frangibility in the area, and the influence of the construction of petrochemical industry. On the basis of existing theory of ECC and sustainable development, the conception and connotation of ECC were enriched. Also, considering regional ecosystem and economical development, the indicators for evaluating regional ECC were put forward, which include resources carrying capacity, human effluence, environmental carrying capacity and ecosystem flexibility.(2) Using principle component analysis method, the value of ECC for Yanlian-Yangzhuang River from 1999 to 2006 was estimated. The results show that the values of resource carrying capacity and integrated ecosystem carrying capacity had been declining from 1999 to 2006. However, the values of social effect, environmental carrying capacity, ecosystem flexibility had been declining from 1999 to 2002 while had been increasing again from 2002 to 2006. From comprehensive analysis of the regional ECC, it was found that conditions of resources and the ways of its utilization had a great effect on regional ECC. Also, the basic conditions of fragile environment had limited bearing of resources exploration and environmental protection. And people lack of awareness for environmental protect, which caused declining of the regional ECC as well.(3) According to the above results, using stepwise regression analysis, the variations of the regional ECC in 2011, 2016 and 2020 were forecasted, repetitively. The results show that the value of the regional ECC increase again after 2006, the state of the regional ECC become tolerable from intolerable. It was further found that water resources have became abundant and ecosystem quality have got better due to application of some effective measures such as ecosystem reestablish, environmental planning and protection and regulation of industrial structure. All of which have brought better changes of biodiversity, ecosystem functions in the Yanlian-Yangzhuang river industrial district. This research will provide useful reference for construction of the second project.(4) Based on the results of evaluation and forecast of the regional ECC of Yanlian-Yangzhuang river, some suitable measures for keeping better situation of ECC were put forward. As the regional district is complicated systematical ecosystem including agriculture and industry, the development of industry should be based on the conditions of resources and environment. At the same time, the development of hi-techniques and acceleration of resources recycling should be put into effect. Besides, harmonious coexistence of agriculture and industry should be realized through development of modern agriculture system. and agriculture production with high benefit and low cost.