Forecasting The Effect Of SO₂ Emission By Coal-Fired Power Plants During The 11th Five-Year Plan

This paper is developed and completed on the basis of National 973 Program-Strategic Research on Pollution Control & Regulation in the Delta of Yangtze and Pearl River(2002CB410800), Acid Rain's Subsidence System, Transportation Situation and Control Principle(2005CB422200), and Discharge Volume Control for SO2 in Coal-fired Power Plants during Tthe 11th Five-year Plan.The study analyses the implementation of SO2 discharge control in the 11th Five-Year Plan by Coal-fired Power Plants. For one point, it could show the effect and trend by the end of 11th Five-Year Plan. For the other point, we could find the problems and provides the foundations for control, adjustment, environmental program and regulations for SO2 subsidence in china.By transportation and transformation, SO2 issued by Coal-fired Power Plants has a quite an effect on the ecosystem. In addition, the influence is over regions and nations. As a result of energy structure and economic development, the China's discharge volume of SO2 takes the first place around world, 40% of which is produced by the Coal-fired Power Plant. This makes the acid rain pollution even worse.With lots of materials, this paper processes and sorts out integrated data of the year 2005, 2008, 2010. And it also well locates every Power Plant, through the use of Geographic Information System. The statistics is dealt with computer and set up the discharge list. Moreover, it analyses the fluctuation of installed capacity and SO2 issue.By ATMOS, the transformation process of SO2 in 2005, 2008, 2010 is stimulated. And with the Geographic Information System software and other tools, analyzed the total sulfur deposition, sulfur dry/wet deposition, SO2 and SO42- concentration, which in the whole test field especially the China main land. In the typical area, like Beijing, Yangtze River Delta, Pearl River Delta, we predict and make analyses on the controlling effect of SO2 discharge during the 11th Five-Year Plan .By comparing the modeling total sulfur deposition amount with critical load of sulfur deposition in each grid over entire Mainland, we can get a general tendency of an excess of critical load for sulfur deposition in China.It analyses and forecasts the SO2 subsidence contribution made by Coal-fired Power Plants of every province in those typical regions in 2005 and 2010.The mostly result of this study is the Coal-fired Power Plants emission SO2 from 1588.74×104t in 2005 to 875.39×104t in 2010,reduce 44.9%;the SO2 concentration from 3.74μg/m3 to 2.07μg/m3,fall 44.65%。...