Sulfur Dioxide Emission Trading Policy Effect Evaluation Based On System Dynamics

The mass emission of sulfur dioxide leaded to acid rain which leads to aspect economic development, environment, and human body health seriously. As an environment economic method, based on the market and controlling sulfur dioxide pollution, sulfur dioxide emission trading is at the experiment stage in China, although it has acquired some effect, it still has many problems in its implementation process.This dissertation utilizes the system dynamics method to the research area of policy effect evaluation of sulfur dioxide emission trading policy. First, the dissertation introduces the topic background and the research significance, profoundly summarizes domestic and foreign research situation of the application of system dynamics and emission trading, and makes a brief narration. Next, the dissertation introduces the system dynamics methodology and its the research steps. Then this dissertation summarizes economical trace to the source of emission trading, analyzes the implement situation of emission trading policy, including implement and application of emission trading policy in the foreign countries, and in our country. Based on the above paragraphs, this dissertation founds domino effect evaluation emulational model of sulfur dioxide emission trading policy, by using theories and methods of system dynamics, and system dynamics modeling software Vensim which is the newest edition in this area in the world. This model divides into two subsystems which are organically related in together: the sulfur dioxide pollution subsystem and domino effect evaluation emulational model of sulfur dioxide emission trading policy.Through carrying on basic simulation and policy simulation repeatedly the many times of policy effect evaluation model of sulfur dioxide emission trading, this dissertation puts forward the following several proposals based on the emulational results: the first is to consummate law system of emission trading in order to insure the implement of sulfur dioxide emission trading. Referring to overseas and our country's experiment site cities' experience, our country's law should create the following basic conditions: confirming emission trading, confirming Emission Reduction Credits and legal procedures of emission trading. The second is to perfect emission trading market construction in order to improve the efficiency of sulfur dioxide emission trading policy. So it needs to establish and complete the following four aspects: building principle of the emission trading market, basic structure of the emission trading market, operation of the emission trading market and monitoring and management of the emission trading market. Third, to improve the supervising and managing ability of the government in order to reduce the emission trading gross of sulfur dioxide. It includes building perfect supervising and managing system of emission trading in the process of lawmaking, auditing strictly in the process of emission trading which should be done by the environment protect department, and fulfilling the monitor responsibility strictly.