The Research On Hazard Index System Of Tailing Dam Failing And Safety Assessment Methods

So far, about 8 541 tailing ponds have been established in nationwide scope except Tianjin and Shanghai. It is worth noting that less than 70 percent of tailings dams are in the normal operation in our country. About 44 percent of tailings dams are in risk, sickness and extended service status in some industries. The situation is very disadvantageous. To make things worse, domestic areas, industrial and mining enterprises or major cities and towns, etc. are located downstream most of these tailing ponds. Once tailings dam break, it will cause significant environmental pollution, property damage and human casualties. Statistics show that the proportion of the normal operation of domestic tailings is low and the security situation is quite grim. Therefore, it is imperative to strength safety management of the tailing ponds and establish tailings dam-break hazard index system and safety evaluation model, which will play a significant role in reducing and preventing the occurrence of tailing dam failing accident, ensuring safe operation of the tailing ponds, making them to better serve safe production of the mines as well as healthy, steady and rapid development of the national economy, etc.At present, in domestic, the main research contents of tailing ponds security is still the problem of deformation and stability. Even though many scholars have the view that tailings dam-break caused by many factors, but research results have been mostly focused on single factors. Now it is lack of system research on tailings dam-break mechanism of the hazard system. With the methods of documentary review, mathematical statistic analysis, and induction and summarization related accidents both in China and abroad, this article provides several main types of dam-break and studies the disaster-causing mechanism relevant to diffuse top floods, damage stability, seepage damage, structural and management, and brings out the comprehensive countermeasures to prevent the dam-break disaster. It also studies and establishes a dam failing hazard index system for the tailing ponds based on engineering analysis of the dam pond indexes as well as correlation analysis. There are several methods used in safety evaluation of tailings dam-break nowadays such as Fault Tree Analysis, Safety Check List, Preliminary Hazard Analysis, Expert Analysis and so on. After some research into the above methods, based on the fuzzy mathematical theory, this paper adopts Fuzzy Pattern Recognition to evaluation the security of tailings dam-break. After a hazard index system is set up, the weight of each index is calculated according to Analytical Hierarchy Process method, finally a Fuzzy Comprehensive Evaluation Model is built and applied to the tailings dam of He Shang Yu. It approves that the model works well.This paper relays on science and technology projects of the Eleventh Five-Year Plan. It can provide the key technology to make risk assessment and monitor and warning early after the subject finished. With the application and extension of these technologies, the level of technical equipment of our tailings will be improved.