| Changsha City is located in the east part of Hunan province. Recently, the increasing development of industry and the constant expansion of cities and towns have been posing a great threat to the ecosystems of Changsha. Therefore, the security of ecosystems is required to be evaluated and the importance of the system balance should be paid more attention to, so that the population, resources, environment, economy and society can get a harmonious and sustainable development. Moreover, the construction of eco-city and the two types of social of Changsha will be promoted. And they also contribute to the construction of ecological security of City Group of Changsha, Zhuzhou and Xiangtan, and the harmonious development of Changsha. The ecological research in Changsha to synthesize the nature, economy, and social conditions of the city are still in shortage, particularly the quantitative evaluation of ecological security. Based on the above, this paper is to evaluate the ecological security of Changsha city from the followings.(1) According to PSR(Pressure State Response) and AHP(Analytic Hierarehy Proeess) set up the index system of ecological security of Changsha. Through the Delphi method to select good indicators from"mass" indicators to build the ecological security evaluation index system. According to the principles and requirements, based on an overall consideration of nature,economy,social conditions to build ecological security evaluation criteria of Changsha. Then,the standards system of ecological security of changa is built.(2) To evaluate ecological security of Changsha in 2007 and to evaluate the differences from 2001 to 2007 with AHP and fuzzy overall evaluaion.Results show that:the overall evaluation value of ecological security is 2.25 of Changsha in 2007,close to the level ofâ…¡, is basically a good level. From 2001 to 2007, the overall evaluation value of ecological security is presented to improving gradually.the overall evaluation value dropped from 2.71 of 2001 year to 2.25 of 2007 year, This shows that social development, scientific and technological progress, changed value of people,to a certain extent to alleviate the pressure the people giving on the ecological system, to complete security management of ecological environment security.(3) Based on the evaluation results and the index value of changsha from 2-001 to 2006, the paper uses the stepwise regression analysis model of SPSS1 4.-0 to construct the forecasting model of the ecological security.And it also us es the results of 2007 to confirm the the rationality of the model. Results sho w that the results of regression model and fuzzy overall evaluation is consisten t.At last, to apply the model to forecast the overall evaluation value from 2008 to 2020,Results show that if the current rules does not change, the prospect o f construction of ecological security will be very optimistic in Changsha,present ing a good situation improved gradually.(4) According to results of overall evaluation and the analysis of ecological security barrier degree in Changsha city, combined with the existence of present ecological environmental problems in changsha city, come to the the major limiting factors of the construction of ecological security. Based on the existing major limiting factors,Some measures of ecological ecological security is put forward according to the fact.All conclusions that are summed up in the paper will be important to manage changsha efffeetively... |
PDF Full Text Request