Study On The Forecasting And Warning System Of The Accidental Water Pollution

Along with the rapidly economic development and sharply increased population, recently the sudden water polluting accidents have happened frequently in China as never before, which will severely threaten health and lives of the public, environmental safety, and sustainable development of the economy as well as society. In order to reduce the loss to economy and society and the harm to ecological environment caused by accidental water pollution the most possibly, it is necessary and essential to establish a forecasting and warning system of the accidental water pollution that could be applied widely.The present study on risk analysis and emergency management in respond to sudden water pollution, however, is relatively insufficient, especially in the aspect of forecasting and warning the accidental water pollution. Specifically, the deficiency includes lack of systematic and operational technologies, failure in certain levels of accuracy and applicability of prediction and warning in real accidents, shortage of accesses to eligible model and software towards sudden water incidents and so on. Therefore, this study aims to propose a set of comparatively universal designing ideas and realizing methods of the system that is able to forecast and warn the water pollution unpredictable, improving some disadvantages of the present methods and technologies in application, thus making some meaningful exploration in this area.Setting out from the perspective of risk management of the accidental water pollution, this study put forward the fundamental requirements of the emergency response, that is, accident identification, impact prediction, warning assessment and emergency measures. Meanwhile, this study focused on the special features of the sudden water contamination, taking into account the particular demands of forecasting and warning in realistic incidents, that is, less time, extensive application, certain accuracy, accidental control, comprehensive pass, integration and independency. In the basis of meeting these needs above, this study designed the main structure of the system, namely the data collecting layer, the model predicting layer and the warning transporting layer, among which, GIS technology was integrated in the data collecting layer and the warning transporting layer while EFDC and WASP was coupled in the model predicting layer.Based on what has been mentioned above, this paper pay high attention to the key methods and technological difficulties in establishing the system. Generally speaking, firstly, according to various entities of the environment and pollution sources information, taking advantage of ArcInfo, built the fundamental information database of the environmental background in the drainage basin. Secondly, utilizing the grid generating program of the EFDC, generalized the GIS layer of the water body in the basin, producing the plane domain grid of the object; collecting hydrological parameters, preparing input files of the EFDC, realized simulation of the EFDC model; based on the EFDC model, constructing the WASP water quality model, coupled two models; setting all kinds of input parameters of the WASP model in accordance with specific accident, predicted the impact of the accident by running the WASP model. Thirdly, connecting outputs from the model layer and the GIS, showed predicting results from all aspects; evaluated the warning level and the warning range; sent warning information to relatives.According to above ideas and methods, attached to the national 863 program "Protection and Emergency Response Demonstration of Environmental Pollution of Typically Chemical Industrial Park along the Yangtze River", this study established the forecasting and warning system of the accidental water pollution of NJCIP. The aim realization and the running situation of the system was illustrated and analyzed through an emergency scenario of toluene spilling of the LongXiang enterprise.Finally, this paper drew the main conclusions of the study, gave some insufficiencies existing in the study, and looked forward the further research.