Methods For Forecasting Hospital Seasonal Time Series Data

With the implement of the hospitalization insurance and the affiliation to WTO, the managers of hospital would face more challenge. It is helpful for realization the scientific management to analyze and to forecast the time series data of hospital. The objective is to investigate the most appropriate forecasting model for seasonal time series of hospital.In this paper X-ll seasonal adjustment method and Box-Jenkins seasonal models were selected for analyzing and forecasting the seasonal data. And in this paper one other paper was used to provide the data of X file wastage data. All the output and error were compared with the actual value and the error of the seasonal regression model.Box-Jenkins seasonal models show obvious advantage. The trend, the seasonal variation and the irregular were all taken into account in this model. The parameters were estimated and the residuals series was white noise. The modeling and the forecasting was feasible and had adequately theoretic basis. Box-Jenkins seasonal models also offered the forecasting confidence interval. The identification, the estimation and the forecast had mature method and SAS provide the procedure for identification, estimation and forecast.The two seasonal data were successfully adjusted by the X-ll seasonal adjustment method. The primitive seasonal data were decomposed into trend series, seasonal variation series and irregular series. Though the forecasting effect was not better thanthe effect of Box-Jenkins seasonal models, the infection of season appeared more clearly and the trend did also. It is significance to arrange physician, to prepare sanitary material and to stock drug. The managers could consult the trend time series to project the future also.The seasonal regression model was also used in this paper. The equation of the seasonal regression model were established, and the trend, the seasonal variation, the circular change were all estimated in each equation. In this paper, the method gained better forecasting effect. That is to say, the seasonal regression model is practical method in hospital statistics forecast.The practice of this paper proved it is feasible and reasonable to forecast the future data using the past time series with the appropriate method or model. Because there are many factors that affect the selection of forecasting method, in the future, there would be many question need further study.