Application Of Mathematical Models In Schistosomiasis Surveillance Data

Objectives Through exploring the secular trend, endemic situation andeffectiveness of prevention and control in the schistosomiasis surveillance sites of Sichuan province, to find out the weakness in the control and the emphasis in the future work, and to form a good information feedback for serving the field work, giving advices on how to establish corresponding control strategy and macroscopic planning and offering the reference for the similar study as well.Methods The data of the schistosomiasis surveillance sites of Sichuan provincefrom 2000 to 2004 was analyzed in detail. Then computing the indices of transmission dynamics to reveal the epidemiological characteristics of schistosomiasis and the difference of the surveillance sites, using the stochastic model for variation of faecal schistosoma egg count to estimate true prevalence, probing into the methods of calculating schistosome intensity of infection and comparing the intensity of infection of each surveillance site every year.Results The infection rate of schistosomiasis fluctuated yearly in everysurveillance site, but decreased en bloc. It was stable and difficult to lower(In 2004, the infection rates of schistosomiasis of four surveillance sites were 9.04%, 0.95%,3.19% and 1.09% respectively). The indices of the transmission dynamics showed that schistosomiasis was still transmitted in every site but transmission capacity was much lower. In addition, the indices were lightly different, which meant that each site should take different strategies in the future. The true...