Analysis On Epidemic Trends Of Hemorrhagic Fever With Renal Syndrome In Changchun

Hemorrhagic fever with renal syndrome (alias epidemic hemorrhagic fever) is one kind of disease of natural focus caused by Hantaan virus, with high incidence, high case fatality rate , and wide distribution scope. More than 30 countries around the world have hemorrhagic fever with renal syndrome patients, China is the country which is severest damaged by Hantaan virus.,and most of cases come from main land including the 31 provinces or cities, and sometimes form Taiwan。In recent years,The worse thing is that there are some new areas falling into the epidemic areas of infectious disease, and sometime, the disease breakout and prevail in those areas, also, the type of the disease can be different from the old ones in those old epidemic areas of infectious disease. In some provinces, the incidence of HFRS apprised obviously, and the situation become very rigorous.In the cases, those peasants who are adolescents and post adolescents are the major part. And it not only do harm to the people's health and life, also affecting the development of economy, and also becoming a important question of public health.This study focused on analyzing the epidemic characteristic, change of the epidemic area type, variety trend of epidemic hemorrhagic fever from 1990 to 2005 in Changchun, and through analyzing we can build up Markov model to predict the incidence trend of HFRS in the next five...