Interactions Between Components Of Metabolic Syndrome And Metabolic Syndrome Vs Framingham Risk Score For Prediction Of Type 2 Diabetes Mellitus/Cardiovascular Disease In Prospective Study

Objective:To analyze the interaction between the components of Metabolic syndrome(MS) and Type 2 Diabetes Mellitus(T2DM) /Cardiovascular Disease (CVD).To compare MS with the Framingham risk score (FRS) as predictors of T2DM and CVD.Method: In this prospective study, participants(total 1946,male 823) were recruited from the Prevention of multiple metabolic disorders and MS in Jiangsu Province , who had been followed up for five years. The National Cholesterol Education Program Adult Treatment Panel III Asian criteria was used to define the MS. Using COX regression to analysis the association between the MS and its components with T2DM/CVD, and the synergy index(SI) was used to evaluate the interactions between the components of MS and T2DM/CVD. Based on he Prevention of multiple metabolic disorders and MS in Jiangsu Province, Using Receiver Operation Curve(ROC) and COX regression to analysis the MS and its components vs FRS as predictors of T2DM and CVD.Result: After adjusted general risks, the MS compared with the non-MS at baseline, the adjusted risk ratio(aRR) of T2DM and CVD were 2.54(95%CI:1.67-3.87) and 3.97(95%CI:2.15-7.32). Then the MS components were executed further adjustment, only Fasting Plasma Glucose(FPG) [aRR=4.18(95%CI:1.98~8.80)] is independent risk factor of T2DM, only Blood Pressure(BP) is independent risk factor of CVD, [aRR=3.84(95%CI:1.45-10.20)], The result of the interaction between FPG, and the others MS component was SI=1.41 ( P=0.46),and the result of the interaction between BP and the others MS component was SI=1.85 (P=0.13). Using MS as cutoff point, fixed the MS' positive rate and false positive rate separately, and computer FRS'false positive rate and positive rate.For T2DM, MS'positive rate and false positive is inferior than FRS, but for CVD. MS'positive rate and false positive is close to FRS. After FRS was categorized according to quintiles, using ROC compared MS'component with FRS for predicting T2DM and CVD, the area under curve(AUC) for T2DM, MS'component is exceed than FRS(0.65/0.51,P<0.01),but the AUC for CVD, there was no different for MS'components and FRS(0.67/0.73,P>0.05).Conclusion: After adjusted general risks, the MS compared with the non-MS at baseline, among the components of MS, only Fasting Plasma Glucose(FPG) is independent risk factor of T2DM, only Blood Pressure(BP) is is independent risk factor of CVD, The participants who combined FPG /BP with other 2, 3 or 4 components of MS, the risks of T2DM/CVD was greatly increased. However , there were not significant interaction among the MS component.Compared with FRS, MS and its components is stronger predictor of T2DM.In contract, when established predicting CVD, MS and its component is identical with FRS.