A Study On The Potential Distribution Of Aedes Albopictus And Risk Forecasting For Future Epidemics Of Dengue In China

Aedes albopictus, commonly known as the Asian tiger mosquito, is currently the most invasive mosquito in the world. It has colonized at least 28 countries in North America, South America, Europe and Africa. It is of medical importance due to its aggressive daytime human-biting behavior and ability to vector many viruses, including dengue, LaCrosse, and West Nile. Invasions into new areas of its potential range are often initiated through the transportation of scrap tires with eggs. According to the record, the known distribution of Ae. albopictus in China was described as limited to a north-and-west boundary line from northern Liaoning province to southwestern Tibet; in detail, Shenyang in Liaoning province, Xuanhua in Hebei province, Hancheng, Tongchuan, Longxian, Baoji and Yang Pingguan in Shanxi and Shaanxi provinces, Ya'an, Jiulong, Yangbian in Sichuan province, and Chayu, Motuo in Tibet.Based on biological character and collected field data of Ae. albopictus, we use GIS analysis, GARP model and CLIMEX model to predict the potential distribution of Ae. albopictus separately. The results show that many provinces and cities are the potential distribution of Ae. albopictus in China, with southern areas below latitude 30 degrees N most suitable. We combine the predicted distribution with epidemics of dengue in recent years (1990-2008) and history (1914-1989) to develop a list of provinces and regions most at risk for future epidemics of dengue in China. The highest risk areas exist in the tropical and subtropical regions below latitude 25 degrees N, including Guangxi, Hainan , Taiwan provinces, etc.; while other parts in the Southeastern China are also identified as high risk. Supplementary strategies for sentinel surveillance, biosecurity measures and delimitation surveys in the event of Ae. albopictus introduction can be made based on our predicted distribution and the risk forecasting for future epidemics. Methods used here can also be used to predict the potential distribution of other vectors or pathogens.