An Experimental Study On Premise Probability Principle Of Diversity Effect In Inductive Reasoning

Inductive Reasoning is a process by which people can infer a general conclusion from several finite facts, which is a basic cognitive capability. The diversity effect of Inductive Reasoning means that if the premises in an inductive argument is more different, the people will intend to assess the inductive argument is stronger. After 1990, the researchers acknowledge gradually that the diversity is related closely to the core process of inductive reasoning. And since 2000, there are several researchers have developed some experiments to explore whether the children can exhibit the diversity effect in inductive reasoning, and other attempt put out some theory models to explain the mental mechanism of inductive reasoning.However, there are some questions unsolved yet: 1, the experimental tasks to discuss inductive reasoning seem too broad, and are short of principle limit, which often result in conflict data; 2, In despite of some impressed theory models, but there are little attempt to integrate these models with the human true metal process during inductive reasoning, so the theory models often just are the researchers' imagine; 3, the researcher can not find effectual methods to study the complex fast cognition process, such as inductive reasoning; 4, the condutc to the degree of premise difference in inductive reasoning is not accord with the system change principle hi experimental research.So, this research will do some discuss and develop in these aspects. According to the basic connotations of inductive reasoning, the author designed normative inductive tasks. This kind of task emphasized two points: the inference is from specific items to general item; the items and properties are blank so as to peel off the interference of knowledge and experience. After analyzing several theory models of inductive reasoning, we use the Bayes Theorem to prove the premise probability principle, and integrate this theory with human mental process. Then we put out the Complex Cognition Subsection Delay (CCSD), and separate an inductive reasoning process into 3 steps, we expect to go deep into mental process and mechanism in inductive reasoning.Based on the understanding above, this experiment designs four subtest, which form two experiments. The experiment 1 includes an experience-rich-domain test and an experience-poor-domain test, the two tests are all traditional one-step tasks; the experiment 2 includes an experience-rich-domain test and an experience-poor-domain test, too, but the picture test of experiment 2 is designed as CCSD methods, which is different from traditional methods. Then, we use VB6 write the computer procedure as experiment design, the tasks are showed by the computer and the data is automatically recorded, after his task the subjects will be asked tell how and why he choice this item. The experiment is proceeded individually, the number of subjects is 120, who are all the undergraduates of SWNU. To sum up, we acquire following conclusions from this research:1, The subjects' choices in experience-rich-domain tests show no diversity effect, but those on experience-poor-domain tests show strong significant diversity effect. With the subjects' talk records, we can conclude that the subjects probably do not proceed inductive reasoning on the experience-rich-domain tests, because people can solve these tasks by analog process or deductive process; but on the experience-poor-domain tests, because of no experience's strong affects, so the subjects' beliefs about hidden essences is easy to be activated, in fact the subjects' inference unconsciously reflect the inductive reasoning principle. The result suggests that only the strict and normative inductive reasoning tasks can arouse the people's inductive reasoning .2, the diversity effect is related closely to the core process of inductive reasoning. This study finds that when they do not do inductive reasoning the diversity of premises has no affect to their reasoning, and when they do inductive reasoning the difference between premises has stro...