The Estimation Of Urban Natural Disaster Indirect Economic Losses Based On Geo-spatial Agent Modeling

As essential part of natural disaster risk management, losses assessment including assessment of direct and indirect losses, it's very important to the city's disaster reduction and sustainable development. Purpose of this thesis is to establish the appropriate model and software system for the indirect economic losses essential of urban natural disasters. It's based on geo-spatial agents, a new approach.The followings are main contents of the article:1. Summarizes the theory and methods of indirect economic losses assessment. In the analysis of the composition of natural disaster losses, and Distinction between the concept of direct and indirect losses , defining the assessment contents and time frame of indirect economic losses in this model; induction the main methods and examples of indirect economic essential of natural disasters, and focus on the main problems and research trends about this research.2. Summarizes the main theory of Based on Geo-spatial Agents Modeling (BGAM). Introduce the main ways and development methods of Based on the Geo-spatial Agents Modeling.3. We have established indirect economic loss estimation model of urban based on the Geo-spatial Agents Modeling from bottom to top in the disaster system. Focus on how to building three key agents: residents, businesses and governments.4. Developed a computer software system for the urban natural disaster indirect economic losses estimation. The system used Repast and MapWinGIS, both open source software, implements a quantitative estimation for the indirect economic losses.5. Making use of estimation system based on geo-spatial agents, the paper makes Rainstorm disaster indirect economic pre-estimation on Jing'an district of Shanghai. Through analysis of results, we discussed the interaction between the main agents and the indirect losses. Validate the model and system functions.