Study On The Housing Supply And Demand Forecast Model And Evaluate Housing Policy Of Our Country

Along with housing system reform of our country going on wheels, housing construction has made great achievement, but also emerges many extremely urgent problems in the housing market, particularly the mechanism unbalance contradiction between the supply and demand of housing, namely the housing production structure does not match up to residents income level and causes a large number of houses left unused, makes social resource wasted, become a great obstacle of health development of housing construction of our country. Under existing housing mechanism conditions, how to solve this contradiction, research a kind of reasonable housing development scale and grade forecast model has made urgent affairs, base on this purpose, the text attempts to utilize Filter with house of Burgess principle as theoretical foundation, house in Ohls lease foundation, his model is expanded, increases housing area attribute, modifies housing maintenance model and perfect the trade mode of the house, establishes a congruence housing market supply and demand model to the situation of our country, meanwhile the text adopts housing market data of Wuhan city to verify the housing model and gets some important conclusion about private housing market of Wuhan city. It is conclusion that only the families that income per month surpass 2,700 yuan can afford a house without carrying out the housing policies, furthermore the highest house that can afford is the 4th grade (70 Square meter). Via adopting housing policies, such as housing Accumulation Fund policy, housing subsidy policy, etc. Residents family housing utility and purchasing power are remarkably improved. This moment, all families that income per month surpass eight hundreds yuan can afford a house, endurable housing grade moves up the 12th grade from initial the 4th grade. But at present there are still approximately 7.30% families have to rely on low-rent housings provided by the government because of income on the low side. Finally, the text applies house utility model to obtain the optimum housing demand and production structure mode that matches up to inhabitants income, also rational explain a surprising phenomenon appearing housing market presently at the end of the text.