The Development Analysis And Forecast Of River Shipping In Jiangsu Province

In recent years the river shipping in Jiangsu province have developed rapidly by efficient management, and become the representative of domestic inland shipping. After analyzing the situation and influences of river shipping in Jiangsu Province, with qualitative and quantitative analysis methods, this paper forecasts the following contents, including the whole cargo transportation lord, the cargo transportation volume, the main bulk cargo volume and the main waterway volume in Jiangsu. The final result is the theory basis of Jiangsu River Shipping strategy research.There are eight sections in this paper. In the first section, the author introduces simply the research backgrounds and the methods used. Then the paper describes the advantages and disadvantages of river shipping. In the third section, the development circumstances in Jiangsu Province river shipping is analyzed, including situation, problems, functions and position in transport network, etc. In the fourth section, the author analyzed the factors which haves effects on Jiangsu river shipping, such as the macro-change in our country, the industry structure, the economic development trend of its hinterland, etc. The fifth step, we should make it clear that why we have to make a forecast and what is the process in the whole forecast. The forecast waterborne cargo volume in Jiangsu is done in the sixth section, many mathematic models, such as grey model GM(1,1) and linear regression analysis, have been used here and qualitative analyses such as Delphi techniques are also used. Based on this, the author forecast the main bulk cargo transportation volume and the cargo transportation volume change of the main waterway in Jiangsu. At the end the author draws a conclusion and shows an expectation about the river shipping development of Jiangsu Province river shipping in the next twenty years.The increase of waterborne cargo volume in Jiangsu depends on the government shipping policy and the demand of economics development. The river shipping in Jiangsu will grow smoothly, and grow rate will diminish slightly.