Evaluation On Input-output, Achievement And Potential For Rice Production In Shanghai Suburbs

Based on "Dynamic monitoring and information management of agricultural economy and performance evaluation system in Shanghai" and data collecting from 601 of 1210 farmers or enterprises being monitored timely and who are engaged in rice production, involved in crops rotation, input and output, product quality and flow in 2004, multiple factor analysis of rice production in Shanghai suburb was done to investigate input/output and its associated factors, production and management efficiency, marginal benefit and yield increase potential, by using relevant data, the principles of economy, agricultural sciences and GIS, modern statistical theory and software. The result showed that, input level in rice production varied greatly with location, organized size of production, management pattern and rotation types, ranging from 309 to 518 Yuan RMB per mu and with Fengxian (highest) being 68% higher than Baoshan (lowest). Among the planting patterns, rice-green manure crop had the lowest productive cost and rice-strawberry was the highest, with the difference between them being 184.99 yuan per mu. On the whole, with increased scale of production and management, the cost declined, mainly due to decreased labor cost. Rice yield also varied greatly with rotation pattern, input level, variety, field conditions including soil fertility, ranging from 507kg/mu in Pudong to 568kg/mu in Nanhui with the difference being 12%. Among the planting pattern, vegetable-rice was the highest (581 kg/mu) and fallow-rice the lowest (510 kg/mu). However, the difference in yield among the different faming scales was not significant.The relationship between input and output was complex and affected by cultivar, planting pattern and production technology. Productive cost per unit area was positively related to yield, but negatively related to profit. Rice yield and economic output showed increase with increased direct cost per mu, and reached maxmium when direct cost per mu was up to 400-450 yuan, and after that showed rapid decrease when input was increased further. In general, the economic profit is higher when the input is low, and marginal benefit declined with increased input. In addition, Shanghai has still greater potential for rice yield improvement although it ranks the high position in China.According to the analysis above, the author proposed some models and strategies for reducing productive cost and optimizing management of rice production in Shanghai. (1) Models for obtaining maximum input profit. Provided ensuring normal rice production, total productive cost should be maximally controlled, and natural production ability of both arable land and rice varieties should be greatly utilized in order to maximize profit. In normal condition, rice yield is is around 500 to 530 kg per mu, and thus output and profit per mu are about 905-959 yuan and 625-659 yuan, with ratio of output to input being 2.23, according to the calculation of mean price in 2004, the average output value. (2) Models for maximizing benefit of unit area. Based on model (1), fertilizer is further increased and production level was more intensified in order to realize yield potential of rice varieties. Thus mean yield per mu is increased up to 570-600 kg and the input cost increased by around 180 yuan, the mean output per mu increased by 155-157 yuan, output/input ratio becomes is 1:0.86-0.87. (3) Models for maximizing yield per unit area. On the basis of model (2), input per mu increases by 50-60 yuan, mean yield increases by 20-30 kg. Thus, output will increase by 36-54 yuan and profit becomes minus because of high input.The author suggested that local government and relevant agents should adopt positively flexible policy and practices according to corresponding development of economy and society in the different epoch, so that farmers can be encouraged to adjust their strategies of production and management. (1) When domestic food production is in good situation, food supply pressure is alleviated, and food price shows decline, farmers should be encouraged to adopt the pro...