The Study On The Fluctuation Of European Dollar Exchange Rate

Today, the international finance is highly integrated, Europe occupies very important status in the international economy. As one of the three major global currency, the fluctuation of European dollar exchange rate have very important impacts on global finance and economic development. This thesis started with the fluctuation of the exchange rate of European dollar, described its characteristic by using statistical method firstly, then set up a concrete model of equilibrium exchange rate of European dollar that suit for European economic conditions, and through which analyzed the factors influencing European dollar exchange rate fluctuation in long period ,and made a idiographic analysis combined with other factors and carried on simple appraisal to it. I hoping it can offer some reference for our government make interrelated policy and be useful for the reform of the system of our China Yuan exchange rate and drawing lessons from.This thesis is divided into four parts altogether. First part is the preamble; Second part is a real example part, introduced the operation of European dollar fluctuate situation and described its characteristic of exchange rate firstly, then use time array method made a research on the Volatility Clustering and persistence of European dollar exchange rate. Analyzed through measuring, get some conclusions rich in the actual meaning: Euro exchange rate has Volatility Clustering and the characteristic of this kind of fluctuation can be portrayed in GARCH model. According to real example result, the model of GARCH (1, 1 ) is better. Then use BEER model in the theory of equilibrium exchange rate to carry on a research of the equilibrium European dollar exchange rate and analyzed the factors that influence the fluctuation of European dollar exchange rate in the long period. The third part made a synthetically analysis of the fluctuation of European dollar Exchange rate in different period combined with other basic economic factors, basic policy factors, people's anticipation, and international political circumstance . The fourth part is the deficiency of the thesis and prospect of future research.