| As position and function of real estate in national economic and social development being more and more important, that studying, predicting the influence factor of development of real estate, promoting the real estate of our country continuously, steadily and developing in a healthy way, is a very arduous task of our real estate insider and personages of various circles of society. Urbanization is the important strategy put forward in the plan in tenth " five years " in our country that the urbanization is built. And it will have important effect on development and improvement of the living standards of the people of the society, economy, culture, having great facilitation, especially on development of real estate of our country that can't be ignored. At developing stage fast of construction of urbanization of our country at present, the quickening of the process of urbanization of our country will inevitablely expand urban residents' living space, will unavoidably spur the development of the real estate of our country. We can say, urbanization becomes new motive force of development of real estate of our country in the 21st century in urbanization. There are a lot of factors influencing development of real estate. At present, study about the factor influencing development of real estate is put into mainly such respects as (funds), price of the house, realtor's making the investment, national tax policy, house finance (credit of the secured loan), etc. In fact the above-mentioned research includes the contribution of urbanization, but it is mainly limited to qualitative analysis and is not separated the urbanization from the theory method to calculate too. This purpose of thesis is to strip the urbanization to carry on research and try hard to remedy the blank of present research. The important meaning in which the thesis studies lies in building the impact on development of real estate of our country to study through the urbanization, proposing rationalized countermeasure and suggestion, making the urbanization process rationally, promoting the real estate to develop continuously, steadily and in a healthy way; Meanwhile, make the development of the real estate in conformity with urbanization process and accomplish the coordinated development of the two. The concrete research contents of the thesis and research results made are as follows: Chapter one is an introduction part of the thesis. Have explained the research background, purpose and meaning of the thesis at first; Then do a simple introduction to the present research current situation; Arrange in structure of the thesis finally. Chapter two is related to theories of urbanization and current situation analysis of urbanization of our country. The urbanization (urbanization) is produced by the historical course that the village type transforms to the city type with the life style by the mankind, shown as rural population transforming and course which the city is developing and perfecting constantly of urban population, also called the citification or metropolitanization. The index of urbanization estimates in this thesis lays particular emphasis on two respects of the urbanization level and urbanization tempo mainly. At present, the urbanization level is generally measured with the urbanization rate, mean urban population take area total percentage of population. During the process of calculating and using this index two questions should be paid attention to (1).Urban population's definition; (2).Defect of the system of the household register. The calculation of the thesis to people's urbanization rate index has been corrected. Urbanization rate catches key content of urbanization and it is simple and clear. It is the index that is usually used for weighing the urbanization level both at home and abroad. However, two following defects exist in the urbanization rate: (1). Amount of information that index contains is too little and weigh one country or urbanization of area level is also simple with it; (2).The single population index (namely urban proportion of to total population) is rationally enough to reflect urbanization level. What's more it can't measure urbanization quality. To explain the urbanization development level of our country for many angles and to compare the disparity of levels of the urbanization among every area, I draw lessons from the foundation of two existing index systems of academia and structure out a set of comprehensive evaluation index systems of estimating the urbanization level, including five respects of economic indicator, social index, culture index, scientific and technological index and ecological index. The overall current situation of development of urbanization of our country can be described as: The overall level lags behind; At fast developing stage at present; Show as area develop uneven, namely east develop rapidly, middle part in medium level obviously, the west development is very slow. To the prediction of the development trend of urbanization of our country, this thesis consults the authority's relevant prediction and adoptes conservative prediction basically. Theurbanization rate will be raised by 1.23 percentage points every year. Chapter three is related to current situation of the development, development trend and relevant influence factors analysis of the real estate of our country. Explain the position, function and trade characteristic in our national economy of real estate at first in thesis; Then analyse the current situations of the development and development trends of the real estate of our country. The current situation of the development of the real estate of our country is mainly from five respects about the situation of real estate investment, the development of real estate forms of idle situation, the situation of the room rate, sales situation of the real estate and commodity apartments, commercial residential buildings. The thesis of development trend of the real estate of our country explains from a short time and two medium and long-term respects mainly. The real estate of our country will go up continuously in a short time accompanying eight main trends that financing channel pluralism, second-hand house market intensify, etc. According to medium or long term, the average annual growth rate of sales amount of real estate of our country will be 12.05% from 2001 to 2010. The fast-developing inherent factor is mainly to support the trade of real estate of our country: (1).The urbanization process is accelerated; (2).Fast development of the finance of the real estate; (3). Lasting growth of consumption on housing of the family. It is the influence factor analysis of development of real estate of our country finally. Factors in many aspects such as Macroscopic, microcosmic, economy, social, endogenous and getting outside restrict the development of the real estate. Analyse in this thesis from economic factor, demographic situation, humane factor, natural environment, policy and legal system to influence relevant factors of the real estate. There is per capita GDP mainly in the economic factor of influencing development of real estate, the investment scale of fixed assets, urban residents per capita disposable income and the level of the price of house, scale of credit, etc. These economic factor in addition, urban people (urbanization rate), people of factor factor that thesis analyses especially, it is confirmed finally too but factor of quantitative analysis. Though other factor other factors, humane factor, natural environment, policy and legal system if of population have very great influence on development of the real estate, the thesis only does quantitative analysis. It is the key contents of a chapter and the whole thesis to the influence factor analyses to which the real estate of our country develops. Chapter four is related to the study of the urbanization model impact ondevelopment of real estate of our country. This seal of content are key content of the thesis and difficult point. The thinking of studying in urbanization model is as follows: And other but factor of quantitative analysis for the independent variable with urbanization rate, for because of variable, return to a prediction model of the annual sales amount of commodity apartment with SPSS method. On the basis of above-mentioned research, utilize the elastic analytical method to calculate the elastic coefficient to the annual sales amount of commodity apartment of our country of urbanization rate. Finally, through an analysis of elastic coefficient, confirm the impact on development of real estate of our country of the urbanization. Finally, through calculating and analysing the urbanization draws the conclusion to the elastic coefficient of the annual sales amount of commodity apartment of our country: From 2005-2030 urbanization rate is raised by a percentage point every year, the annual sales amount of commodity apartment of our country will improve by 2.98 percentage points every year. And as time goes on, the elastic coefficient between urbanization and annual sales amount of the commodity apartment reduces gradually, namely urbanization impact on development of real estate of our country will weaken gradually. Chapter five is related to the construction of urbanization and countermeasure and suggestion of real estate development of our country. Making a general survey of the full thesis, the innovation of this thesis and main research results made are as follows: 1. There is little study basically about the dependence of urbanization construction and real estate development at present, and study about urbanization impact on economy and real estate development research is only limited to determining the nature to study. Especially, there is no ripe estimating the index, model yet. This thesis isolates the urbanization out to study the impact on real estate in terms of ration as an independent factor, and has offered a analysing model of urbanization. What's more, the model study remedies the blank of present research. 2. Because the defects of the question existing in counting the requirements in urban population and household register system of urbanization rate, data of each term are not comparative and it is difficult for the data to give our country actual urbanization competence accurately. In this thesis the defects to the question existing in counting the requirements in urban population and household register...
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