A Prospect Theory-based Research On Individual Decision-making In Public Crisis And On The Countermeasure

The thesis is established in the research of public crisis management, which is causing increasingly attention in the world. Based on the prospect theory, individual decision-making in public crisis is researched in the thesis. Firstly, the theory framework is put forward on prospect theory-based individual decision-making in public crisis. Then, the crisis utility model for individual decision-making is established in the former theory framework. Individual behavior of blindly conforming to the norm in public crisis is analyzed with the model by costs and benefits analyzing method and evolutionary game theory. The mechanism of formation of individual behavior of blindly conforming to the norm is explained descriptively, which proves that individual behavior of blindly conforming to the norm is the result of both individual crisis ability and external information. Lastly, the two factors influencing individual decision-making are exactly analyzed. To improve individual crisis ability and enhance information managing mechanism, the author advances some suggestions from the aspects of individual, information managing, organization and mechanism set of supervision.