Prediction Of The Potential Risk Of Plague Infestation In Mongolian Gerbil (Meriones Unguiculatus) Based On Niche Model

Background Plague is an infectious disease that is caused by the bacterium Yersinia pestis. And it is a natural-focal disease. It usually occurs among rodents and can cause epidemic in human. The rodents and rat fleas are the prime vectors of the disease. The Meriones unguiculatus plague natural foci in Inner Mongolia Plateau is one of 12 most active natural foci of plague. The animal’s plague of Meriones unguiculatus is more active, and occurs almost every year. New emerging and re-emerging foci were discovered constantly. Currently, the spatial distribution of the regions of the Meriones unguiculatus plague foci is not well understood. Whether there exist undetected foci in the adjacent regions still need be studied.Object To evaluate the risk of inter-animal plague in Meriones unguiculatus effectively and provide scientific evidence for the prevention and control of inter-animal plague, through studying the correlation between meteorological and environmental factors and inter-animal plague in Meriones unguiculatus.Methods Epidemic data of Meriones unguiculatus plague from 2005 to 2014 were collected. Hotspots were found through the time and space distribution mapping. Logistic regression were used to explore the relationship between the regional plague and climate-related risk factors. The Maxent model was used to predict the habitat distributions of animals plague, host animals and the major vectors. The layer of Meriones unguiculatus plague risk map is overlaid with the plague distribution of Meriones unguiculatus from 2005 to 2014 in ArcGIS to make assessment of the potential risks of animals plague in Meriones unguiculatus plague natural foci.Results There were two peaks of Meriones unguiculatus plague from 2005 to 2014, respectively, 2005-2006,2010 and two very active area geographically. The habitat distribution of Meriones unguiculatus plague mainly concentrated in the north-central highlands Wulanchabu, Ordos Plateau, the Loop eastern plains. The main factors related to the Meriones unguiculatus epidemic distribution are Precipitation of Warmest Quarter, Precipitation of Wettest Quarter, Precipitation in August, Annual Precipitation, Mean Temperature of Warmest Quarter, Altitude. The predicted habitat distribution region of Meriones unguiculatus are mainly concentrated in central and northern parts of Wulanchabu plateau, Ordos Plateau, the eastern plains and the Loop Helan side and the west side. The main factors related to the distribution of Meriones unguiculatus are Precipitation in July, altitude, Precipitation in August, Temperature Seasonality, annual precipitation. The predicted habitat distribution distribution of Nosopsyllus laeviceps kuzenkovi mainly concentrated in the north-central Wulanchabu Plateau, Ordos Plateau, the eastern Hetao Plain, Xilin Gol plateau west. The main factors associated with Nosopsyllus laeviceps kuzenkovi are precipitation in July, precipitation in August, annual precipitation, Altitude. The appropriate distribution of Xenopsylla conformis conformis mainly concentrated in Wulanchabu plateau, Ordos Plateau, the piedmont plain of Yinshan and the north of the Loess Plateau. The main factors related to Xenopsylla conformis conformis distribution are precipitation in June, precipitation in July, altitude, annual precipitation, Mean Temperature of Warmest Quarter, precipitation in October. Four counties and one city were the core areas of Menones unguiculatus animal plague in Inner Mongolia Autonomous Region; Xingqing District of Yinchuan City and other 17 districts (counties, flag) were active epidemic area; Hangjinhouqi eight flags (district and county) were static epidemic area; The Blue flag eight flags (districts and counties) were the areas which may be spreaded to.Conclusions The use of ecological niche models and climate data can predict animal plague of Menones unguiculatus and the ecological suitability distribution of the main host animal and the main vector fleas, and get better.accurate and reliable prediction results. Classified the animals plague risk Menones unguiculatus by combining with the risk of epidemic outbreaks and history epidemic, narrowed the focus on high-risk areas, defined the risk level of each of plague foci areas, and provided a reference for rodents plague surveillance.