Research On The Evaluation And Analysis Methods Of Operational Effectiveness Based On Bayesian Networks

Weapon equipment effectiveness evaluation is a essential link to Weapon equipment Demonstration, mainly give service to selection, optimization and key factors analysis of Weapon equipment scheme. The existing methods are deficient in several aspects as follows: Firstly, they can not reflect the complex relationship between the evaluation factors; Secondly, they are difficult to meet effectiveness evaluation's needs, which are becoming increasingly complex and diverse; Lastly, as those retrospective features is weak, so they can not provide a clear evaluation course to Decision-makers.This study will combining BN with simulation data, and put forward the concept of Operational Effectiveness Evaluation Models based on BN. Essentially, this approach makes use of the three important characteristics of Bayesian networks: the ability to express complex relationship, the ability to express the uncertainty of probability, and the reasoning functions. By learning from Expertise and Simulation data, excavating the hidden knowledge included in both of them, we can build the Combat Efficiency Analysis Model, then carry out efficient analysis.This study put forward a systematized and standardized modeling process of the Operational Effectiveness Evaluation Models based on BN, and this process is came from gained achievements of Operational Effectiveness Evaluation based on BN. A further research has been given to the key problem of discretizing continuous variables during model building process, a discretization Evaluation criteria is proposed at the same time, and solved the seek problem using DAG. Its also put forward four application modes of Operational Effectiveness Evaluation Models based on BN, each model's mathematic analysis method has been given in this article. Under the disturbance situation model, the MPE problem has been expended, the E-MPE problem is also been putted forward for the first time, and give a solution based on ACO. Last, Combined with a application example of penetration effectiveness evaluation about Ballistic Missiles the problem raised in the article has been verified.