| Statistical forecast with dynamic analog is one of the earlier proposed methods used by weather forecaster to make weather forecast has its unique advantages, but because of huge computation, the promotion of the method encounter some difficulties. With the increase of computing capacity, the accumulation of historical data, the constraints of statistical forecast with dynamic analog to promote be mitigated to some extent, these advantages have become driving force for in-depth study on statistical forecast with dynamic analog and the research is of great importance.In this paper, in order to overcome the shortcoming of the tradition statistical forecast with dynamic analog (MOS statistical forecast with dynamic analog),based on meteorological data of 7stations around Bohai rim, prediction experiment are carried out with the introduction of the multi-level and multi-element filter, the PP method was also introduced.The historical sample was forecasted by PP and MOS statistical forecast with dynamic analog. The results showed that:(1) the introduction of the multi-level and multi-element filter can significantly improve the forecasting results. (2) the average temperature, minimum temperature forecast was better than the highest temperature forecast by using PP or MOS statistical forecast with dynamic analog, from the point of geographical distribution, with the latitude increase forecasting accuracy rates of the two methods is gradually reduced. (3) The average forecast accuracy of PP statistical forecast with dynamic analog is better than the MOS statistical forecast with dynamic analog of about 10%, forecasting capacity is relatively good. (4) Operational applications by using PP statistical forecast with dynamic analog were discussed and the difficulties and key technologies in the operational were analyzed too. System test run showed that, PP statistical forecast with dynamic analog is basically credible for the medium-term temperature changes forecast. |
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