Multi-criteria Evaluation Of Earthquake Risk Based On CAPRA Platform: Simulation Analysis

In recent years, due to earthquakes happened frequently and damagecaused by earthquakes was shocking, pr obabilistic seismic hazard analysis(PSHA) gets more and more attention, and the concept of seismic riskassessment becomes consensus gradually. Seismic risk assessment includesearthquake hazard, earthquake vulnerability (including physical vulnerability&human vulnerability), and environmental and socio-economic characteristicsexposed within their influence sphere. Conducting seismic risk assessment,does not mean implementing disaster rescue, but take the evaluation results asa base for the following disaster risk management, to promote disastermanagement decisions and work more efficiently. Therefore, seismic riskassessment, should consider appropriate assessment objects and assessmentmethods, depending on the purpose of disaster rescue policy.Assessment object in this thesis is Sichuan (China). Sichuan, is anearthquake-prone area, a place attacked by violent earthquakes, a placeattacked by earthquakes the most frequently and left with the worst result inChina except Taiwan, Tibet, Xinjiang, Yu nnan. According to the ChinaEarthquake Networks’ records, from January1,1970to December31,2012,129earthquakes over M5.0took place in Sichuan Province, including theM8.0large earthquake in Wen-Chuan County on12May2008.After Wen-Chuan M8.0earthquake, small and medium earthquakes occurred quitefrequently in Sichuan region, and Ya-An earthquake as strong as M7.0alsooccurred on April20,2013. On this point, Sichuan belongs to high-riskearthquake zone, thus it is necessary to study its seismic risk.Seismic risk assessment is often considered complex and difficult. In thisthesis, multi-criteria evaluation method among holistic risk assessmentmethodology was adopted to divide the seismic risk assessment process intofour stages: hazard analysis, vulnerability analysis, loss assessment and riskevaluation. Based on the CAPRA (Central American Probability RiskAssessment) platform developed by World Bank, apply CRISIS2007module tohazard analysis, ERN-VULNERABILITY module to vulnerability analysis,and CAPRA-GIS module to loss analysis. Once obtained the risk indicators corresponding to each hazard scenario, they were weighted and integratedbased on the degree of importance, to get the total risk index RT of eachregion of Sichuan, according to Guillermo Escobar Castro, Darwin JavierOrtiz, who proposed the concept framework of multi-criteria risk assessment.The results were as followings: seismic hazard of each region of Sichuan,structural vulnerability corresponding to buildings with differe nt structuralcharacteristics, the annual average loss, the probable maximum loss ofearthquakes with different return periods, and the regional seismic risk value.In addition, this thesis described and took comparison of different methods ofvulnerability analysis, including analytical method of vulnerability analysisbased on CAPRA platform, HAZUS analytical method and the incrementaldynamic analysis (IDA analysis), and the empirical method. Finally, in orderto reduce earthquake loss, a cost-benefit analysis were carried out, to getoptimal seismic fortification intensity.Since having collected a lot of data, reliable conclusions were obtained,which have some degree of significance for siting of houses throughoutSichuan, structural seismic design, ri sk mitigation, urban risk management andthe establishment of emergency response mechanisms, at the same time arereferenceable for other scholars.