Application Of Stochastic Process In Storm Surge Disaster Analysis

Storm surge disaster has great influence on the economic construction of thesociety, human life and the safety of marine engineering. Together with the longcoastline and the Pacific Ocean, storm surge disaster leads to great economic loss ofour country every year. Therefore, the analysis of storm surge and accuratelyforecasting storm surge disaster has great significance for us.Stochastic process is used to analyze storm surge disaster in this paper. Firstly,this paper introduces poisson process, compound poisson process, stationarystochastic process and stopping time. This article discusses the distribution of waitingtime interval of poisson process and the maximum likelihood estimation of parameter.Also, this article proves that wave displacement is a weak stationary process on thebasis of the classical model of ocean wave introduced by Longuet-Higgins in1957.Then, this article introduces the relationship between stopping time and return period,threshold value and the life length of marine engineering. Combined with oceanicexamples, the application of stochastic process is discussed in this article.Secondly, the model of compound poisson process between the frequency andintensity of typhoon is constructed to analyze the effect of frequency and intensity oftyphoon on wave displacement and water level. From another perspective of stormsurge disaster—marine engineering reliability, this article constructs he model ofcompound poisson process between storm surge impact marine engineering times andeach time impact on marine engineering damage to analyze the average cumulativedamage of ocean engineering, reliability and average life length.Lastly, combined with observed data in Chaoliandao this article discusses theapplication of stochastic process in storm surge disaster analysis. Some simplemartingale processes in Ocean are introduced. On condition that the wavedisplacement is an independent increment process, this article proves that the wavedisplacement is a martingale process.