Research On The Convergence Of Marine Economy Growth In China

The Marine Strategy gradually being taken seriously by the Party and state in the21st century. Especially in the Eighteen Party Congress, the report put forwardConstruction of Marine Power and takes it as the national strategy. In recent years,the coastal areas also have responded to national strategies and made ambitious plansto build strong marine provinces and cities one after another, continue to developmarine economic. However, due to the different natural conditions, differentmacroeconomic fundamentals, different marine science and technology level,different characteristics of industrial structure in the development of marine economicin the coastal areas, regional marine economy development has the trend of theobvious differentiation which is not conducive to the sustainable development ofmarine economy. Currently academia has not yet come up with the effective methodsto narrow the difference of regional marine economy, so it is theoretical and practicalsignificance to research on this question. The paper understands the changes ofregional marine economy difference from the perspective of convergence, carries outthe empirical research on questions of marine economic growth convergence anddynamic evolution by system quantitative methods. The contribution of this paper ismainly focused on the following aspects:Firstly, according to the basic theories and research methods of the economicconvergence, the paper put forward the concept: the convergence of marineeconomic growth, preliminary examines the convergence of marine economy growthby using the coefficient of variation, MLD index, Gini coefficient. The results foundthat the convergence of marine economic growth has stage characteristic from1996to2011in the coastal areas of China: the convergence is not significant in1996-2011;there is no convergence in1996-2001; the convergence cannot be sure in2001-2006;there is obvious convergence in2006-2011, it means that the difference of regionalmarine economy is narrowing during the period.Secondly, by using cross-sectional regression analysis and panel data methods, itverifies the obvious absolute β convergence and conditional β convergence in2006-2011. Further, it finds that the marine science and technology not only facilitatesthe marine economy development in the coastal areas, but also the important influence factors of conditional convergence. To further quote the regional dummyvariable, it finds that the region factor is no significant impact on the marine economygrowth. By using the fixed effect variable coefficient static panel data model, it findsthe negative correlation relationship between the marine economy development leveland the convergence speed, the underdeveloped regions has the faster convergencespeed, shows the trend of pursuing the developed regions. Using the dynamic paneldata model, the convergence speed is1.72%in1996-2011and4.32%in2006-2011by the method of GMM, the result is more reasonable and closer to reality comparedwith the regression analysis method and the static panel data model.Finally, the paper builds the non-parametric estimation methods to dynamicsimulate the distribution of the marine economy in coastal areas, verifies the periodiccharacteristic of convergence more accurately. By selecting different sample data,make non-parametric density estimation to describe the distribution about the totalamount level and the relative level of the marine economy, use R language software todraw the maps of Gaussian kernel density estimation, to explore the dynamicevolution process of the convergence of the marine economy growth from1996to2011, and forecast the future trend of convergence.