| In the process of human survival and development, land use and land coverchange is the comprehensive reflection of natural and human activities; the changehas led to many environmental and ecological problems. Therefore, LUCC researchhas become a hot issue in international academic circles. In arid area, land use mainlyconcentrated in the oasis which is based on the natural runoff, and has uniquecharacteristics, complexity. At present, arid zone LUCC and its driving force researchin a relatively weak state. In this study using the typical arid area Dina river oasis as astudy area, using a combination of qualitative, quantitative phase analysis method,3Stechnology on1992-2011Dina river oasis land use and land cover change process,characteristics and the driving force, which provided basis of theoretic and policy forthe sustainable utilization of land resources in the area.The result shows that:(1)1992~2011years, cultivated land and building land area have been increased.Cultivated land area proportion of the total land area increased from13.28%to34.27%, the construction land in proportion to the total land area increased from3.18%to15.89%. At the same time, grassland, woodland, water area and unused land,with farmland, construction land increase and decrease. Among the reduced area, thedecrease of grassland area is the most. Its reduced area is135.01Km2, proportion ofthe total land area of grassland decreased from25.41%to4.39%.(2)1992~2011years, space between the type of oasis land Dina River transfer is veryobvious. Grassland, woodland, unused land and waters land changed to farmland, andthe waters, unused land, woodland, grassland changed to farmland. Among them,grassland to arable land area is the largest. Woodland, grassland, water landtransferred into farmland, construction land, unused land. So the woodland, grassland,water areas are on the decline. (3)1992~2011years, the integrated land use dynamic degree in Dina river oasis is2.06%,1.97%,2.88%. Through increasing, decreasing, and increasing trend variationof U type. Dina River in1992,2000,2006and2011, the comprehensive index of landuse were174.82,176.77,203.69,225.31. This shows that Dina River oasis land usedegree is in the middle stage of development; the conclusion is consistent with thelocal natural environment and social economic development level.(4)Dina river oasis land use and land cover change driving forces including naturaland social economic driving forces. This paper analyses the natural and socialeconomic driving forces. Conclusion is as follows:①.The shortage of waterresources, climate environmental, and the unique geological features of land use andland cover change has certain constraints.②.Taking farmland as the breakthroughpoint, using principal component method study the change of social economic drivingforce of Dina river oasis farmland. The population, economy of scale, transportationdevelopment, and the technical level is the main social and economic driving forces ofDina river oasis land use and land cover change.(5)Logistic regression analysis was conducted by using the spatial analysis function ofARCGIS10.0software combined with multivariate statistical function module ofSTATISTICA software on Dina river oasis farmland driving mechanism. The resultsshowed that:1992-2011cultivated land no change forecast accuracy rate were92.7%,91.7%,0%; change forecast accuracy rate were95.2%,91.9%,100%; the totalpercentage of correct rate were94%,91.3%,50.4%. Obtaining that simple Logisticregression model is not necessarily suitable for simulation and prediction model. |
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