Simulation The Geographic Distribution Of Five Lindera Species And Analysis Their Dominant Climatic Factors

Lindera glauca, L.aggregata, L. obtusiloba, L.communis and L.megaphylla are dominant tree species of subtropical regions in China, they have high medicinal value, economic value and ornamental value. In the context of climate change, to explore how their distribution change and to analysis their dominant factors is necessary. Meanwhile, as the subtropical plant species, simulation these species distribution in previous studies can also provide variety of basic data for our research.Collect the distribution point coordinates of 5 Lindera species, drawing actual geographical distribution map, it can be seen that there are alternative distribution phenomenon between the L.aggregata-L.megaphylla by east to west, and between the L.aggregata-L.glauca-L. obtusiloba with from southeast to northwest. From Diva-GIS derived 19 climate factor information of distribution points. Through the analysis of variance and principal component analysis can be drawn: The precipitation of the driest month, Precipitation of Warmest quarter, Temperature seasonality and Max temperature of Warmest month are the dominant factors of L.aggregata-L.megaphylla alternative distributed. Precipitation of driest month, Annual mean temperature and Precipitation of Warmest quarter and Isothermality are dominant factors of L.aggregata-L.communis alternative distribution. Precipitation of Warmest quarter, Max temperature of Warmest month, and Precipitation of driest month are the dominant factors of L.aggregata-L.glauca alternative distribution. Precipitation of driest quarter, Mean temperature of Coldest quarter and Temperature seasonality are the dominant factors of L.glauca-L. obtusiloba alternative distribution.Using BIOCLIM model simulating potential distribution of 5 Lindera species in current and future climate situation. The results show that: compared with actual distribution map, potential distribution area of 5 species have expanded, and 4 species with the emergence of new distribution areas except L.megaphylla, most of area consistent with the actual distribution. The simulation results of future climate conditions showd : the core of L.aggregata distribution area there is fragmentation trend and gradually migrated to north, the most suitable area reduced, and moderate suitable scope expanded; the most suitable and moderate suitable area of L.megaphylla reduced, and the southern margin of distribution area Migrating up; the core distribution region of L.communis move to the south, the most suitable area reduced; the most suitable area of L.glauca increased, and the move to the East, at the same time, the moderate suitable area reduced; future L. obtusiloba distribution is more concentrated, southeast area reduced and core distribution areas divided into two major regions in Guizhou and Shanxi Hubei. The ROC value of the five species are all greater than 0.9, which indicates that the BIOCLIM model simulation results with high reliability.Using the principal component analysis method to study the dominant factors of each species distribution, and analysis the threshold of each dominant factors by drawing the frequency histogram, the results showd: the domainant factors of L.aggregata and their thresholds are Temperature Annual Range(19.4℃~33.5 ℃), Mean Temperature of Warmest Quarter(23 ℃ ~28.9 ℃), Precipitation of Warmest Quarter(203mm~947mm) and Mean Temperature of Wettest Quarter(19.9 ℃ ~28.8 ℃); the dominant factors of L.megaphylla and their thresholds are Annual Mean Temperature(12.8 ℃ ~22.9 ℃), Isothermality(23.7%~40.4%), Mean Temperature of Wettest Quarter(18.9 ℃ ~29.1 ℃), Precipitation of Warmest Quarter(318mm~909.6mm) and Mean Diurnal Range(5.9℃~11.6℃); the dominant factors of L.communis and thresholds are Annual Mean Temperature(13.5 ℃ ~24.7 ℃), Temperature Seasonality(455~920.1), Mean Temperature of Wettest Quarter(18.8℃~28.7℃)and Precipitation of Warmest Quarter(5.7mm~13.5mm); the dominant factors of the L.glauca and their thresholds are Annual Precipitation(592.6mm~2179mm), Isothermality(20.6%~37%), Mean Temperature of Wettest quarter(17.8 ℃~29.8 ℃) and Mean Diurnal Range(5.7℃~11℃); the dominant factor of L. obtusiloba and their thresholds are Annual Precipitation(338mm~1785.2mm), Temperature Seasonality(443~1039.3), Precipitation of Coldest Quarter(2mm~202mm) and Precipitation Seasonality(45.3~117.5).