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Temporal-spatial Variations Of Temperature In Chinese Inland Based On GIS And Multivariate Statistical Method

Posted on:2016-02-10Degree:MasterType:Thesis
Country:ChinaCandidate:F LiuFull Text:PDF
GTID:2180330461967397Subject:Cartography and Geographic Information System
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China’s territory is vast and her terrain is complicated, and the temporal-spatial variations of temperature in Chinese inland changes significantly under the common effect on global warming and regional conditions.In this study, the temperature change rate in the different periods and the Mann-Kendall(M-K) Test value in each site was calculated from observed monthly mean temperature data at 349 meteorological stations during 1953-2012 and observed monthly mean temperature data at 612 meteorological stations during 1983-2012; the spatial distribution pattern of temperature change was obtained based on the spatial interpolation method of geo-statistics, Iso Cluster Unsupervised Classification method and hot (cold) spot analysis method to analyze and discuss the inter-decadal variations and the spatial heterogeneity in partition results; The mutation characteristic of time series of temperature change in the different periods of time through Pettitt Nonparametric Test; The mutations characteristic of temperature in different time periods in Chinese inland was in partition by the method of ARCGIS Spatial Statistical Grouping Analysis to analyze the mutation evolution in different regions. The study hopes to private certain guidance for the regional economic development policy, ecological construction and deal with the climate system change. The result showed that:The division from the hot(cold) spot perspective, the temperature change had a significant difference found in the north and the south of Chinese inland from the perspective of hot(cold) spot analysis during 1953-2012, it was heating up in the area of north latitude 37°primarily which was increasing slowly in Central China and Southern China (except the plain region of Yangtze river middle and lower reaches) for nearly 60 years; The temperature change rate was the most significant in Northeast Plain which was the only region that the growth rate of temperature rising at 0.2334℃ / 10 a in 30 years after was below 0.2511℃ / 10 a in 30 years before; The temperature change was dramatic warming in Inner Mongolia Plateau (especially ecotone between agriculture and animal farming-pastoral zone) in 30 years before and after; In Yangtze river middle and lower reaches and Tibetan Plateau, the temperature change was from cooling trend - 0.0536℃ / 10 a in 30 years first to slow warming trend-0.4966℃ / 10 a in 30 years after which was the most severe heating area.Contrasting the regionalization results of hot (cold) spot in 30 years before and after, the results showed that the hot spot gathered in Northeast Plain and the northeastern Inner Mongolia Plateau was Transferred to the southwestern Inner Mongolia Plateau, Loess Plateau and the eastern Tibetan Plateau in the southwest direction; the hot spot accumulated in Dzungaria Basin and the western and northern TianShan mountains was spread to the eastern TianShan mountains and the Turpan Basin in the southeast direction; the most significant cold spot gathered in Sichuan Basin and the northern Yungui Plateau in 30 years before, was transferred to Yungui Plateau and the southern Nan Ling region in the south direction.Four partitions of the mutation of annual mean temperature during 1953-1982 was obtained by Spatial Statistical Grouping Analysis,6 partitions in1983-2012 and 6 partitions in 2012-2012, this was concluded that the temperature mutation degree level in 60 years scale was significantly higher than that in 30 years before and after, and the mutation characteristics were more obvious, and the most significant years of temperature mutation in China in the past 60 years are mainly distributed in the 20th century in the mid 80 s to 80 s (level 0.05). In the spatial distribution, the bound is north latitude 35°and east longitude 110° mainly, the time of temperature mutation in northern areas was mainly occurred in 1985-1985 years which was earlier than the southern area for 6 to 8 years, and the time of temperature mutation in t southern areas of north latitude 35°, east longitude 110°ast was occurred mainly in 1990-1993, the temperature mutation in 110°east longitude temperature was later than east of the west area for 3 to 4 years.The correlation of temperature mutation with average temperature monthly and annual average temperatures was at the 0.01 level which was significantly correlative. Annual mean temperature mutation process was caused by the temperature mutation cumulative contribution of each month, June and September has effect on annual average temperature the most, the correlation coefficient was 0.946, the second was October and August, and the minimum correlation coefficient was 0.62 in January; the years in the most significant temperature mutations in Chinese inland were basically identical to the corresponding calculating regional annual average temperature of mutation results, but its mutation month is inconsistent, which has confirmed the temperature changes is influenced by big master factor, but the local natural environment and human activities in different regions can influence the temporal-spatial distribution of the temperature change on the side.
Keywords/Search Tags:Tendency rate, Mann-Kendall, Pettitt test, Hot (cold) point analysis, Grouping analysi
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