Analysis Of Slope Deformation Based On Kriging And Improved Grey Combined Model

In recent ten years landslide increased year by year since human engineering activities on the mountain, the number of the slope also increased year by year, but the landslide increased rapidly because of slope protection deficiency. Landslide will cause incalculable losses, therefore in order to be able to take appropriate preventive measures to reduce the loss of landslide, we do slope deformation analysis aim at easy landslide slope. The slope deformation analysis can analyze the prediction of slope deformation and its change trend effectively, so it is a very meaningful work. But in consideration of the degree of attention and research investment and other differences, compared to the developed countries, our country still has a gap in the level of slope deformation analysis on the accuracy and efficiency. In the above research background and objective, this paper studied the traditional theoretical model of the slope deformation analysis, and put forward a new combination forecasting model, namely Kriging And Improved Grey Combination Model, abbreviated to K-Modified Grey Combination Model. This combination model has advantages of Kriging Model and Grey Model, can improve the precision of slope deformation prediction effectively. The main research contents of this paper can be summarized as follows:(1) Applied Kriging Theory of the geological statistics to slope deformation analysis, explained the thought source, introduced the Kriging Theory in slope deformation analysis of advantages and disadvantages, and analyzed its theoretical possibility, listed the basis and assumptions.(2) Improved the Traditional Grey Model, so that Improved Grey Model had been possessed with "metabolism" function, could improve the analysis and prediction precision of Grey Model effectively.(3) Combined with a slope deformation monitoring examples, the Kriging and the Grey Theory was applied to the analysis and prediction of slope deformation displacement. Aiming at founding the Kriging Model, the first step was to statistical analysis the variation function of Kriging Model, and then used the effect of elliptic principle combining the spherical model of Kriging in three-dimensional space, selected the best interpolation model of Kriging finally.(4) Explored how to solve the problem about weight distribution of Improved Grey Model and Kriging Model, and the two model was combined to forecast, and then used several indicators of accuracy evaluation and comparison among the models, analyzed and obtained the conclusion finally: compared with Kriging Model and Gray Model, K-Modified Grey Combination Model can be a good combination to these two kinds of models with their respective advantages, its analysis and prediction precision is the highest, the analysis and prediction precision of the Kriging Model and the Improved Grey Model is the second, the analysis and prediction precision of Grey Model is the lowest.