The Theoretical Study Of The Turning Period Dynamic Characteristics In Numerical Weather Prediction

Due to the numerical weather prediction is able to reflect the characteristics of the atmospheric physics,it has become an important tool of meteorological workers for the weather analysis and forecasting.From the beginning of the last century to the present,the research by a large number of scholars have made a lot of achievements in this field,as chaotic is the essential characteristics of the atmosphere system, the existing numerical model can’t be good for turning period forecast.turning weather or climate prediction has not been solved well. From the mathematical point of view,this is the instability of differential equations or sensitivity to the initial value.Based on the Lorenz equations,this paper is studied about numerical weather prediction of turning period and gives a quantitative description on the dynamic characteristics of the Lorenz system;make certain theoretical discussions on numerical weather prediction of turning period and climate change. Paper is divided into the following sections:The first part,theoretical derivation.Through the analysis of the stability of equilibrium points of the Lorenz equations,we get the surfaces which separate the quasi-stable region and quasi-unstable region to analysis.This is one of the important dynamic characteristics of the Lorenz system, and the paper give new method and theory for the detection of the abrupt change of climate.The second part,the numerical simulation for the theoretical results are derived. Numerical test results corroborate the theoretical derivation.This part also gives the boundary surfaces of different equilibrium points and renderings of Lorenz.the motion trajectory figure of different time to visually observing the results of the theoretical derivation.The third part.summarized methods and procedures used of numerical weather prediction of turning period and the abrupt change of climate prediction.The fourth part,according to the initial value of the chaotic system instability.given different initial values to analysis.Though observation and research in the period of transition time and the law, given certain exploration prediction of turning period.