Risk Assessment Of Fengtoushan Collapse And Its Management Project

This paper based on the research achievement in and out of China, through the field investigation and indoor analysis, processes risk assessment to Fengtoushan collapse. The methods and analyses raised in this research also possess profound meaning to other collapse individual risk assessment. The main research achievements are as follow:⑴ Based on the field investigation and indoor analysis, the author firstly evaluates the stability of that collapse. The result of stereographic projection shows that the collapse is unstable. The author analyzes the stability under three working condition using Monte Carlo Method, and the results indicate that: the unstable probability under natural condition is 0.2942; under intense fall condition is 0.5050;under earthquake condition is 0.6092.⑵ Then this paper processes the vulnerability assessment. Categorizes the disaster acceptor according to their respectively characteristics, and calculates their individual property lost probability. Using the risk value formula and the aforementioned results, the author gets the risk value under three working condition.Which are: 842,871 Yuan under natural condition, 1,987,190 Yuan under intense fall condition and 4,809,061 Yuan under earthquake condition.⑶ Finally, constructing the management risk evaluation model based on the fuzzy comprehensive evaluation, combing the weight calculated from AHP, this paper analyzes the risk stability and the hypothetical influence the risk might exert to the management.This paper taking Fengtoushan collapse as an example, researches the method and thought when processing the risk assessment to individual collapse. The results not only help the local government do the disaster elimination but also have reference value to the relative working.