Dynamic Analysis And Prediction Habitat Of Equus Przewalskii In Kalamaili Mountain Nature Reserve

Taking Kalamaili Ungulates Nature Reserve as the study area for analysis and evaluation of the E.przewalskii living environment, with Landsat8 OLI and Landsat5 TM remote sensing image as a data source,this paper analyzed the relationship between the vegetation inter-annual variation in the reserve and the climate,the human factors from different spatial and temporal scales by using the improved dimidiate pixel model based on NDVI and spatial interpolation technology to calculate vegetation coverage and climate change during 1990-2014, and predicted the change of living environment of E.przewalskii in Kalamaili Ungulate Nature Reserve by Markov model. The main conclusions are as follows:1) The vegetation coverage in Kalamaili Ungulate Nature Reserve decreased significantly during 1990-2014. The area of low and mid-low vegetation coverage districts increased, while that of high and mid-high vegetation coverage districts decreased;2) Spatially, the decline of vegetation coverage in Changji is similar and lower than that in Altay region during 1990-2009, but it was significantly higher than that in Altay region during 2009-2014. The vegetation coverage change during 2009-2014 is more significant than that during 1990-2009;3) The annual precipitation trends is not obvious in Kalamaili Ungulates Nature Reserve during 1990-2014. The average temperature and growing season temperature showed an increasing trend. Growing season precipitation decreased slowly. The result of analysis showed that the vegetation coverage and the total growing season precipitation was significantly correlated and the correlation coefficient is larger than the annual precipitation. Therefore, the precipitation in the growing season can explain the change of vegetation coverage to some extent;4) The vegetation coverage in growing season in Kalamaili Ungulate Nature Reserve showed a decreasing trend during 1990-2014, which had a significant positive correlation with the precipitation in growing season with the correlation coefficient reaching 0.834. It was negatively correlated with annual average temperature and growing season average temperature. The vegetation coverage of Zhundong Industrial Park and Kamusite Industrial Park during 2004-2014 decreased by 3.4% and 2.29%. In contrast, vegetation change in non-industrial park is smaller. The human disturbance factors caused a significant impact on vegetation changes in the past 10 years;5) In terms of vegetation coverage distribution in Kalamaili Ungulate Nature Reserve, the terrain also have a significant impact on the vegetation coverage. The vegetation coverage tended to decrease as the slope increased. The slope aspect impact on vegetation coverge:shady slope> semi-shady slope> half sunny slope> sunny slope. Different terrain changes will result in different altitudes and different solar radiation, affecting the vegetation photosynthesis and respiration which interfere with the physiological processes, and thus formed a different kind of vegetation coverage distribution in Kalamaili Ungulate Nature Reserve;6) The living environment of E.przewalskii in Kalamaili Ungulate Nature Reserv is predicted by Markov model and the transition probability matrix of each vegetation coverage section during 2004-2014 is identified. The vegetation coverage area in 2024、2034、2044、2054 were estimated. The results showed that in the next 40 years the proportion of the low vegetation coverage areas and the middle and lower vegetation coverage areas will increase by a certain level;the proportion of high vegetation coverage areas and the middle and higher vegetation coverage areas will decrease to a certain extent. The average vegetation coverage in the Reserve will decrease continuously. The vegetation biomass on the whole shows a downward trend. Therefore, the living environment of wildlife like E.przewalskii in Kalamaili Ungulate Nature Reserve is unlikely to get better in the short term.