The Sea Level Change And Projection Along The Coast Of China Under The Background Of Global Warming

Under the background of global warming, Thermal expansion and the melting glacier caused the global sea level rise which directly affect human activity along the coast and islands, so it is of great value to study sea level change. In this paper, we use Tide gauge records, sea level anomaly data from AVISO, the correct data of Tide gauge and AVISO(Church et al.,2011),CFSR reanalysis data of sea surface wind stress, OAFlux sea surface heat flux data, Ishii SST data and Pacific Decadal Oscillation index(PDO),Southern Oscillation Index(SOI).we found that the sea level height around the China significantly rises both in recent 40 years(1970-2013) and 20 years(1993-2013).The trends of SLR in all the regions are accelerated in recent 20 years. Furthermore, the speed of SLR is greater than the global averaged SLR in all periods, the trends of sea level rise(SLR) in different seasons are also investigated. the linear trends during the recent 20 years can be well reproduced by AVISO data. The large differences are mainly caused by the rise of the land surface. the possibility of extreme sea level events is much higher than it appears in the annual mean sea level rise.we found that the trend of the annual maximum of sea surface height is closely related with both the inter-annual and decadal variability, Further studies indicate that the significant increase of the net surface heat flux in October primarily leads the increase of the trend of the annual maximum. However, both the shortwave radiation and the latent flux contribute the increases. The analysis of models find that the simulated results of 16 selected models during 1950-2001 in both BYE and SCS are much weaker than the calculated results of Church, and there is no similar spatial distribution. The simulated results during 1993-2005 is much better than the former one, the simulated spatial distribution and value of MIROC-ESM in BYE is similar to observation. The projection of SLR trend in BYE and SCS are various under different patterns and models, but most of projections is that the sea level will rise in the 100 years. The forecast of MIROC-ESM in RCP4.5,RCP8.5 is that the sea level rise at 2.1mm/a、 2.6mm/a.