Evaluation And Projection Of SST In The China Seas From CMIP5

Based on observation and reanalysis data, the ability of 21 CMIP5 models to simulate monthly、seasonal and interannual SSTs in the China seas are evaluated. The results show that the CMIP5 models can simulate the spatial distribution of SST in the China seas well but underestimate its magnitude. The SST difference between the multi-model ensemble and observations is significant in the Bohai and Yellow seas. As to the interannual timescale, the simulation results and Nino3 index is worse correlated than observation and Nino3 index. The SST in the China seas increases in 1960-2002, but changes to be stable in 2003. Among the 21 CMIP5 models, ACCESS1.0 、 BCC-CSM1.1 、 HadGEM2-ES 、 IPSL-CM5A-MR 、 CMCC-CM 、FGOALS-g2、CNRM-CM5-2 and INMCM4 can simulate the SSTS in the China seas better.The trend of SST in the China seas is simulated based on ACCESS1.0、INMCM4、BCC-CSM1.1、IPSL-CM5A-MR、CMCC-CM. From the best multi-model ensemble(MME) conclusion,we find that the warming of SST can be primarily attributed to the increase of ocean temperature advection(especially in the Kuroshio area) in the EAST China Sea and in the northern part of the South China Sea(SCS). While, in the southern part of the SCS, the SST warming is dominated by the surface net heat flux from 1960 to 2005. Under RCP4.5,RCP8.5 run, the warming trends of SST will continue in the following 100 years with a spatial average of 1.5℃ and 3.3℃ over the whole China seas. Under different RCPS, the space distribution of the surface wind variability trend is similar, but in the South China the models results are different. Most of the models can simulate a greater southern wind and smaller winter monsoon, and in the northern side of the Kuroshio, both of them can get an increase of velocity which reaches 1cm/s、2.5cm/s, respectively. The major cause of SST warming in the East China sea is sea surface net heat flux and the temperature advection and sea surface net heat flux promote SST warming in the South China.