The Pollutant Emission Reduction Early-warning Assessment Model And Its Application Under Uncertainty

The supervision and management of the reducing emission of total amount of majorpollutants has made certain achievement in our country during the period of “eleventh fiveyears”. NH3-N and NOx, which are based on the original new target pollutants COD andSO2, were added with continuing to implement the emission reduction policies in the periodof “twelfth five years”. In order to promote the supervision and management of theemission reduction progress successfully, urging the completion of each area of emissionreduction targets, and the uncertain model of pollutant emission reduction early warning andassessment is established and further applied to local heavy industry city.Firstly, this paper expounds the national emission reduction situation since the12thFive-Year Plan and the domestic and foreign relevant research on environment earlywarning. According to the historical information and the situation of development of thetotal emission reduction of four major pollutants, the paper combines with the actualsituation of development of the economy，society， environment in China, improving andperfecting the pollutant emission reduction warning index, establishing the pollutantemission reduction warning index system of water pollutants, air pollutants.Secondly, Considering the uncertainty of the total pollutant emission reduction targetscompletion，this paper introduces Monte-Carlo (MC) method to evaluate and diagnose thereliability of pollutants emission reduction targets completion probability in each area. Byusing the combination forecast method of the trend extrapolation and random sampling, thispaper obtains and preprocesses the data of certainty and uncertainty indexes of the targetyear.Thirdly, this paper calculates the targets reach indexes of pollutant emission reduction,and carries on the statistics and probability analysis of these indexes.Then the paperdetermines the warning level of pollutant emission reduction, and analyzes the situation andthe reasons of emission reduction in warning serious area, putting forward specificproposals to ease the situation of pollutant emission reduction. Finally, uncertain model of pollutant emission reduction early warning is applied toAnshan, a heavy industry city. And the condition of reaching the emission reduction targetsis evaluated and forecasted. This paper analyzes the results of early warning, and gives theemission reduction advice for Anshan.The research results show that: At the end of the12th Five-Year Plan, emissionreduction situation of COD and NH3-N is more serious areas mainly in the northeast,central and southwest. Emission reduction situation of SO2and NOx is quite serious inNorth China and East China. Anshan situation of major pollutants emission reduction isfrom bad to good since the12th Five-Year Plan. In general, Emission reduction of COD,NH3-N and SO2could be completed in general situation, and most areas are expected toaccomplish the emission reduction targets. Emission reduction situation of NOx is notoptimistic, if we don’t take positive measures to reduce emissions, it will be difficult tocomplete the emission reduction targets.