Driving Factors Decomposition And SD Simulation&Prediction Of City Carbon Emissions

With the rapid development of economy and the city’s urbanization processaccelerating, transportation, as the important foundation of the national economyindustries, has become one of the main sources of greenhouse gases such as carbondioxide emissions. Now, the ecological environment caused by city transportationenergy consumption and carbon emission deterioration, has been a serious air pollutionphenomenon attract wide attention in society. Hangzhou as a famous tourist city, cityenvironment and the level of economic development of the requirements are higher.Although the government has the remarkable achievements in the construction oflow-carbon city traffic system, but it still faces transport energy consumption, roadcongestion and haze caused by vehicle emissions and other issues.Firstly, this paper analyses the current situation of urban population, transportation,energy consumption and carbon emissions in Hangzhou. The result shows that theresident population of the annual growth rate in Hangzhou is larger. The energyconsumption and carbon emissions from road and urban passenger transport account fora higher amount of traffic consumption and carbon emissions proportion of the entirecity, while the energy consumption and carbon emissions of waterway transport is thelowest.Secondly, the driving factors of Hangzhou transport and the impact of variousdrivers of the contribution rate are calculated by Laspeyres decomposition method. Theresults show that the impact of energy consumption structure is obvious, and the impactof economic activity is a major factor of energy consumption. Then, the driving factorof carbon emissions and the contribution of each Effect in Hangzhou are calculated bythe improved LMDI decomposition method. The factors are divided into six effects,the conclusions show: the energy Carbon intensity effect plays a negative the role of thedriver, the other five effects play a positive role. By studying the above analysis offactors of city transportation energy consumption and carbon emissions in Hangzhou,we can provide the feasibility suggestion.Again, this paper describes the basic theoretical basis of the system dynamics (SD)for the period from2005to2012for the simulation and selects the basic variable indexof Hangzhou’s transportation energy consumption and carbon emissions system. The establishment of SD flow diagrams and equations, SD simulation models areconstructed in Hangzhou’s transport energy consumption and carbon emissions.Vensim-PLE software are used this system simulation forecast. Transportationdevelopment plan of "Twelve Five" period requires Hangzhou city vigorously todevelop public transport, put more buses number, make the number of buses inHangzhou get to9040, and make public transport share rate of40%. Reducing car fuelconsumption factor, improving the energy efficiency of private cars and restricting thepurchase of private cars, not only to achieve the goal of urban transport planning ofHangzhou, but also make the Hangzhou Urban Transportation Energy consumption andcarbon emissions to a minimum.Finally, promoting "public transport priority" strategy, encouraging residents tochoose public transport and other green ways to travel, using high technology to reduceprivate car fuel consumption, purchasing and limiting line number of private cars,electric vehicles and encouraging the use of clean energy vehicles and other measuresare put forward to establish "low-carbon transport city" in Hangzhou.