A Study On Port Economic Externality Based On System Dynamics

As the interface point of sea transportation and land transportation, modern port is the focal point of trade, logistics, information and capital flow, and it becomes functional centre of comprehensive logistics and main growth pole of the city development day by day. The growth of port economy and logistics has brought its externalities increasingly, such as offshore pollution and environment destruction, port congestion, the decrease of coast resources and so on. The spread effect of the rapid development of the city brought by port has been recognized widely. The study of the externalities from the development of port economy, is not only helpful to the port and the society which will insist on sustainable development, but also can help the port enterprise and government make decisions so as to enhance competitiveness of port.Based on the theory knowledge of port industry and externalities, the paper comprehensively studies all kinds of adverse effects and the economic contribution to related industries brought by port, puts forward the specific factors of positive and negative externalities, and finally analyses the correlation and restrict relationship from each other through the use of system dynamics. After building the model of port economic externalities, the paper applies the model to predict and analyse the development of Qingdao Port from the year 2006 to 2020, and finally puts forward some decisions through adjusting the model. The results show that the simulation model built by the paper is appropriate and the method is able to evaluate the comprehensive influence from the port.The main innovation points of the paper are as follows:(1)The paper has brought the concept of externality from economics into the area of port economic development, quantified the negative effects of the decrease of natural resources and environment pollution and the positive effects of employment pull and the promoting of correlated industries; (2)The paper has brought system dynamics into the study of port externalities. It applies Vensim to simulated the model based on the datas from Qingdao City and finally puts forward some advices about the future development of Qingdao Port through the empirical analysis.