Fce Method Based On The Improved Ahp For Early Warning Of Geological Disasters

In recent years, geologic hazard such as earthquake landslide,mud avalanche and so on has caused lots of casualty accidents and huge pecuniary loss to the society. It has raised concerns because it has pose a great threat to lives and possession of people. The state leaders comment to work well with the early warning and forecasting of geologic hazard. General Office of the State Council issued a "Instancy Circular on Enhancing Prevention Works of geologic hazard during flood seasons ". It admits of no delay to work well with the early warning and forecasting of geologic hazard. Risk assessment work is very important because it is the basis of the early warning and forecasting.Geologic hazard is affected by many factors such as the geological and environmental conditions, the rate of vegetative cover, the rainfall, the project activity of people and so on. The relation of every factor is very delicate. It is a big subject that how to make the risk assessment work with the specific situation of all the factors. As a mathematics worker, providing effective mathematics tools for every actual work is our task. Traditional AHP-FCE is widely accepted and used in the past. But this paper thinks that it depends on the specialists so much that the instability caused by it would affect the result much. For the purpose of overcoming that disadvantage, this paper uses a new method which constructs the estimation matrix with actual datas not consciousness of specialists to evaluate the risk assessment of Jilin Province. The result is good and could provides help for early warning and forecasting.This paper introduces some basic conceptions of fuzzy mathematics first, emphasizes FCE. Then it introduces modified AHP-FCE after discusses the basic theories and steps of traditional AHP-FCE. In the end, it uses the modified one on the case of Jilin Province. It gets a good result.