Price Forecasts And Analysis For The Hunan Province Real Estate Based On Gray Theory

Since the commercialization of urban housing in China of 1998,the real estate industry has been the rapid development and become the pillar industry of our economy. We have no doubt about its importance in our economy. Real estate prices are the most important and direct reflection of real estate market. Stabilize the real estate prices, especially commercial building prices, is the focus of the community, and also our main task of macroeconomic regulation and to control of real estate. As one of the six central provinces, Hunan province has achieved a high degree development in all aspects of economy and society in recent years. The real estate market in Hunan province has a sustained, rapid and healthy development. The real estate market is prosperity and the price is rising gradually. As it is a very complicated economical problem and economic, natural and social factors to the development of real estate have behind influence, then all these make the relation of building price and its related economical variances can't be described with accurate mathematics methods. Moreover the development of our building real estate has a shorter history than foreign countries, especially for commercial building market. Besides, the related datas are not enough.According to these, this paper tries to predict the more accuracy commercial building price according to the datas of nearly a decade of Hunan province, by the basis of the improved Grey-Markov methods. Meanwhile, various factors affecting the price of commercial buildings are quantified using the Grey relational analysis. The influence of different factors can be compared, then supply the feasibility reference for indirecting the regulation of the real estate market's supply and demand balance and real estate investment decision in Hunan province.The main conclusions of this paper are the following two points:(1)We obtain the higher accuracy results, the prediction of the average price of commercial buildings of Hunan province in 2010 is 2765.044 yuan,by the use of improved Grey-Markov mode.(2)We obtain the mainly factors impacting the price of commercial buildings in Hunan province by the methods of Grey relational analysis. According to the order of impacting size, these are per captial disposable income, housing cost, GDP, level of urbanization, urban residents by the end of savings, one-year loans of interest rates, the area of buildings completion, the sales of buildings.