Line Prediction Of The Interplanetary Shock Propagation Time

In order to predict the arrival time at 1AU of interplanetary shocks, a simple model called disturbance model is established here. In this model, the travel time is assumed to be a function of energy that is released from solar explosives, and input pulse longitudinal width, input pulse duration, the interaction of interplanetary shock and background solar wind are also taken into account. In order to verify the prediction efficiency, 27 interplanetary shock events from January 1979 to June 1982 and 68 interplanetary shock events from February 1997 to January 2000 are used for testing. Comparing the results of our disturbance model to those obtained by STOA and ISPM, we find that our disturbance model is as good as the other two models, and in some cases even better. The disturbance model can give the prediction for all the 95 shock events, while STOA model works for 89 events and ISPM model for only 72 events. We arrive at 25.26% percentage of all the 95 events with the relative time error less than 10%, 50.53% of all the events with the relative time error less than 20%, 65.26% of all the events with the relative time error less than 30%, 31.58% of all the events with the relative time error between 60%~80%...