Long-range Artillery Weapons System Accuracy Analysis Theory And Its Algorithms To Achieve

Based on the studies of the firing precision theory and technical norm reasoning of the long-range gunnery system, and with the help of the long-range missile system experimentation analysis, the simulation of the small-size fighter, the small sample theory and the application of Bayes Method, this thesis mainly presents the deep and systematic studies of the precision analysis of the long-range gunnery system. The estimation methods and confidence interval of System Error, Dispersion, Circular Error Probability, and other technical norm reasoning of the long-range gunnery system are put forward. Ultimately the thesis puts forward a systematically theoretical basis and the arithmetic actualization process, which offers a comparatively complete set of the theoretical basis and resolution to the precision norm reasoning.Firstly, the classical method of the precision analysis is introduced. Based on the classic statistics theory and the relevant studies of the long-range gunnery, then more theories are proved.Secondly, according to the changes of the current experimentation condition, small sample theory such as Bootstrap Method and Bayes Bootstrap Method is introduced. The characters of convergence in probability and unbiased estimate are proved. The applied methods are presented. Linking up the known experimentation data, it proves that the above methods are feasible and efficient.Thirdly, the Bayes Method is used. The prior distributions of system error and system variance are put forward. A new test method of confidence level is presented. The applied methods in Bayes theory are presented.Fourthly, combined with the advantages of several theories, the thesis puts forward a comprehensive evaluation approach of the precision analysis, the basic theory's definition, the fundamental theorem and the applied actualization process. And it shows that the approach is feasible through the examples, while it efficiently avoids its disadvantages.Because there is not a complete set of the systematic theory about the precision analysis from the classic statistics theory to small sample experimentation analysis, so the studies of precision analysis theory in this thesis have some practical meaning and application values.