The Leak Consequences Research Of Submarine Pipeline Based On Reliability

Subsea pipeline is the "lifeline." of offshore oil and gas output. Compared with the onshore oil and gas pipelines, subsea pipeline faces more complex marine environment, if leaked or ruptured, it might be difficult to repair, or repair costs higher. As for current leakage and other accidents in particular compensation, it is difficult to define, so when the submarine pipeline pipeline leak, the assessment is extremely important, which can establish a rational system for the accident and accident compensation.This paper studies the reason of the subsea pipeline’s leakage, leakage probability, leakage, emergency costs after the leak, the socio-economic costs and the impact of the ecosystem, providing suggestions for subsea pipeline risk assessment and accident compensation for a preliminary study. First, bases on the basis of previous academic research, focus on the reasons of submarine pipeline leak, combines historical data, whereby the establishment of a subsea pipeline leak Bow-tie model. The model consists of fault tree and event tree composition, using probability theory to predict the probability of occurrence of submarine pipeline spill, spill size. Secondly, using the pipeline oil spills estimation models(POSVEM) to calculate total leakage. Again, analyzes the emergency cost, socio-economic cost comprehensively, especially uses the HEA(resources equivalent) model to calculate total loss of the ecological environment. Finally, takes Bohai as an example to analyze the causes and the probability of pipeline leak, the ecosystems’ compensation after leakage.Based on the subsea pipeline leak forecast and the analysis of leakage, leakage consequences, to provide a reference of risk prevention, risk management, follow-up compensation. In view of the domestic research,our country’s study startes late, not establish a sound database, resulting in more herein with reference to foreign data, so that the results of model calculations and can not be fully applicable in the domestic situation.