Hazard Identification, Small And Medium-sized Tailing Dam Instability

"Safety first, prevention primary, comprehensive treatment" is the policy of safe production in our country. The significant dangerous source identification is the important means which can prevent from significant industrial accident occurs. And it is also the premise of significant dangerous source control and management. Tailing pile dam instability is the typical significant dangerous source in the mine. In the 93 kinds of accidents, disasters and radiation hidden dangers of the world, the tailing pile accident's harm is ranked the 18th, second only to the nuclear weapon explodes, the nerve gas, the nuclear radiation and other 13 kinds of disasters. Due to the particularity and complexity, as well as research insufficiency in the problem, the significant dangerous source identification still lacks of the systemic scientific method. Therefore, it is essential to do discrimination research on the tailing pile dam instability - the significant dangerous source.This article combines theory with practice, uses the ways of safety system engineering, accident cause theory, artificial neural network and analytic hierarchy process and so on, takes systemic study on the cause of tailing pile dam instability, the identification method and the significant dangerous source sorting and other problems. The main research contents show as following:(1)According to the security check table standard, establish tailing pile safety production management unit check table and system check table; Decompose the complex system into the subsystem or smaller unit, and enumerate each unit standard in detail; So that it can achieve comprehensively security check with no leak.(2)Applying accident tree analysis method, establish the accident tree of tailing pile dam instability, solve the smallest cut set and the smallest path set, discover the weakest link in the system and how to take the preventive measure, determine the importance of the basic event's structure according to the smallest cut set(path set).(3)Summary the development of accident cause theory, explain the advantages and disadvantages of each kind of accident cause theory in detail, point out that the accident's occurrence is not the sole factor creates, not the individual accidentally miss or the pure equipment failure forms, but is various kinds of factor combined action result. Therefore, using combination accident cause model so that it can comprehensively summarize the reason for accident occurring.(4)Bases on the managerial failure theory and the energy transfer theory, propose the managerial failure of tailing pile dam instability -the energy transfer accident's MORT model for the first time. This model's main feature is to take managerial failure as the foundation, focus on the analysis of flaw. And the energy transfer or release is the accident's immediate cause. Through the analyzing the impact factor of tailing pile stability, preventing from the energy and the hazard substance accidental transfer, propose the corresponding accident preventive actions. It has great meaning of guidance that strengthens the tailing pile safety management and prevents from the tailing pile accident occurrence.(5)Establish the tailing pile dam stability forecast model with BP neural network, take identification on the stable condition of BAI MA CHONG tailing pile dam, and forecast curacy controls in 10%. Those show this kind of method slightly surpasses the usual empirical formula and the numerical method. So using the neural network forecast dam safety coefficient is feasible.(6)Propose to use analytic hierarchy process (FAHP), establish the hierarchy structure model of the tailing pile dam instability cause, through the FAHP model solution, obtain the priority coefficient of the tailing pile dam instability cause factor, and carry sorting on the relative importance of the dam instability's affected factor.