Estimation Of Hiv/aids In Henan Province Via Mathematical Model

ObjectiveThe first HIV infected individual was reported in paid blood donors of Henan province in 1995.From then on,the number of HIV infected individuals was increasing fast.At the end of 2006,35,232 HIV infected individuals were confirmed and reported and 21,828 were AIDS patients.But some strategies and measures in preventing and controlling HIV infection was carried out by the Chinese government in 1997 and in 1998 the "Blood Donation Law" explicitly prohibited paid blood donations and HIV screening of blood must be carried out.Then HIV transmission by blood donation is no longer the main route of transmission.In order to research the epidemic of HIV/AIDS in Henan Provinice,it is urgent to estimate the HIV/AIDS prevalence trend in the new conditions and it is very important and effective to analyze the HIV/AIDS prevalence trend by mathematical model and some useful findings maybe provide scientific basis to the government strategies. Material and Methods1.A basic discrete-time dynamics model of HIVFirst,the basic discrete-time dynamics model of HIV is formulated and the year 2005 is considered as the starting point.Then the basic idea of the model is put forward.At last,numerical simulation and estimation are done.2.A dynamics model of HIV with interventionThe model with intervention is formulated firstly.Then the basic idea of the model is put forward.The year 2005 is considered as the starting point of the study and the year 2005 is considered as the starting point of intervention also.At last, numerical simulation and estimation are done according to the different intervention rate.Results1.The results of the basic modelThe year 2005 was considered as the starting point of the study and if any interventions were carried out,the number of HIV infected individuals will be about 1,100,000 and the number of AIDS cases will be about 340,000 in 2020.2.The results of the intervention modelThere were different results of estimation according to the different intervention rate.If the intervention rates were 0,0.2,0.4,0.5,0.6,0.8,1,the number of HIV infected individuals in 2020 will be about 1,100,000,590,000,230,000,130,000, 72,000,18,000,3,600 and the number of AIDS cases will be about 340,000,170,000, 80,000,53,000,35,000,16,000,9,000.Conclusions1.If any intervention measures were not carried out in Henan Province,the number of people living with HIV would increase fast from 2005 to 2020.2.It was very important to take some effective measures in order to prevent the high-risk behavior during the first few years.3.If the intervention rate would be above 80%,then it is effective to reverse the prevalence tendency in Henan Province.