| Since the reform and open policy, with the establishment of the central bank system and the deepening of financial system, interest-rate policy has become one of the most important regulating tools. Our interest-rate policy made great progress in inflation period, but seemed helpless in deflation cases after 1996.The questions must be dealt with before using interest-rate policy is whether the interest-rate policy is effective and in which cases it is positive and how to improve the effect of interest-rate policy. With the deepening of reform, the macroeconomic environment and microeconomic bodies' action have already changed remarkably, so interest-rate policy must change accordingly.First, the changes of product markets occur, which includes that the sellers' market changes to buyers' market and that market price is liberalized. Second, money markets and capital markets are built up and developed, which includes foundation and development of inter-banks market, government bonds market as well as security market, coexistence of base interest rate and market interest rate and so on. While the interest sensitivity of microeconomic individuals decreases, the proportion of saving of income becomes too large, economy is lack of availability demand, commercial banks are not willing to lend out money, and the demand of investment goes down. All these things have made interest rate policy rigid and inflexible. This paper is trying to find out the main elements that dominate interest rate polices and improve the solution method.This paper consists of four parts.Part One defines the availability of interest rate policy. According to different sorting standards, availability of interest rate policy can be divided as the followings: availability of the policy's goal and availability of thepolicy's tools; availability of money control and of money effect; availability of regulators, of media and of microeconomic objects. As the reform of economic and financial system advances to a higher level, the characteristics of the behavior of economic agents also differ from those of the past a lot, so the related objects of interest rate policies have to make some changes. Additionally, the problems of what the emergence of global inflation caused by the decreased growth of international economy brings on and how the domestic firms adapt to the more open and more competitive economy after China's entry of WTO pose challenges to interest rate policies. This paper makes attempts to answer these questions.Part Two carries on empirical methods to analyze the relationship between the changes of interest rate and main macroeconomic indexes of China. This paper lays the focus on the interaction between the changes of economy growth, prices and the change of interest rate. The comparison of the data of the economic growth and real interest rate from 1990 to 2000 shows that a high-level negative correlation exits between them. Related to high interest rate policies put forward by finance-deepened theories, Keynes's conclusion of negative correlation between real interest rate and real economic growth is more practical to the economic phenomenon in China in recent years. The relationship between interest rate and real interest rate is quite complex. In the inflation period, the policies of high nominal interest rate and value-keeping saving adopted by the central bank have had remarkable effects on lowering inflation rate but have no influence on the continuous decreasing of price since 1996. This difference occurs because the same interest rate policies are taken in different situations and the other changes such as industry structure, product markets and international environment.Part Three emphasizes on analysis demonstration relations of economic action between main body of microeconomic and interest adjustment. According to different economy principal parts of banks,enterprises andresidents, several interest models are established to analyze the connections among interest, residential consump... |
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