| This paper adopts the model of Input-Output, references the data of input-output of different departments and energy consumption in Jiang-Su province, combines the energy consumption with the model of input-output, studies the impacts of the measures using natural gas to generate electricity and controlling the emission of C02 on the regional economy. At the same time, we forecast the development conditions of national economy and the emission trends of C02 from 2005 to 2030, then compare the emission trend of C02 with the conducted emission scenarios of the second evaluation of IPCC. By studing, we found: in order to control the emission of C02, if only controls the consumption of coal in main combustion coal departments, it will make a remarkable effection to the regional economy. At the meantime, the reduction of social gross output will rise with the increase of the proportion in reducing emission of C02. The social gross output will respectively decrease 288.77. 577.54 and 866.311 billion yuan when the emission of C02 in industry decreases 5%, 10% and 15%. The social gross output will respectively decrease 136.015, 270.03 and 408.044 billion yuan when the emission of C02 in electricity department decreases 5%, 10% and 15%. When adopts the natural gas to generate electricity, the emission of CO2 will decrease 83.9903 million ton, the reduction propotion is 43.79%, the aerosol and S02 in atmosphere will down rapidly; accordingly, the social input will also increase. But the propotion of increase doesn't come to 1% of the whole social gross output (according to this paper calculation). Meanwhile, the input of reducing 1 ton C02 costs about 115 yuan. By 2030, the emission trend of C02 is sames to the second evaluation of IPCC. Summarize, we acknowledge, the measures applying the natural gas in electric power plant to generate electricity. So as to reduce the emission of C02 is a good method, at the same time, the effection isn't so remarkable on the national economy. |
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