Hebei Mountain Basin In The Northwest Between Regional Land Use / Land Cover Change And Its Scenario Analysis

Land use and land cover change (LUCC) not only plays an important role in global environmental change, but also has an important significance in sustainable development and land management of a region. So it becomes one of the frontiers of modem geography. Because of the prevalent land use mode of over-cultivation, overgrazing and deforestation in the past few decades, land use and land cover has undergone great changes in the Basin of Northwest Hebei Mountains. And these changes have accelerated the converse change of living environment, such as desertification and drought.This paper takes the Basin of Northwest Hebei Mountains for example, makes the dynamic change monitor and analytical research of land use/cover using Landsat TM data of 1987 and 2000 based on remote sensing and GIS technology, integrating with statistics data of society and economy. The tendency of land use/cover change in this region during thirteen years is analyzed and the driving force factors that influence LUCC were studied. On this basis, Markov Scenario, Planning Scenario and Ideal Scenario are forecasted in the future ten years in the Basin of Northwest Hebei Mountains. And the similarities and differences of land use/cover in three situations are also analyzed .The research result has provided scientific base for the sustainable development of the basin of Northwest Hebei Mountains and the perfection of land use dynamic management of the area for the administrators.The innovation of the thesis is as follows: applying Markov model to study land use/cover change of the study area; three scenarios are explored from 2000 to 2010 in the Basin of Northwest Hebei Mountains.