Realization Of Tax Revenue Forecasting Model

Data Mining is a rather active research domain that involves database, statistics, etc. It's an unusual process that founds out the effective, fresh, latent-effective mode which can be finally apprehensible. Prognostic analysis plays a critical role in data mining.Revenue prognostic is always an important work in revenue department. It decides making the plan of revenue and the revenue plan is an important content about prognostic of economic activity. Now the form of revenue plan is also worked by the traditional pattern of using basic number add percent of mount. So it needs to establish a scientific system about revenue prognostic as soon as quickly to control the form of revenue. Using the method of data mining and statistics to forecast revenue is the most important thing to revenue department.This thesis introduces the conception and process, relevant knowledge of data mining and statistics. It applies Data Mining to the revenue prognostic. Through the analysis of the large amount of historical recorders and all kinds of data relevant with it, a model is developed based on the regression and roll forecast to predict the revenue of our city. Carrying out the revenue of year and month of 2005. The results of experiments about different models are contrasted and analyzed. It points out that roll forecast is better than regression forecast in revenue prognostic of months. So it can guide to complete the plan of revenue. My research can offer important and scientific basis to the plan of revenue.The main work of this thesis is mining and analyzing the data of Tax Information System about Zheng Zhou state taxation bureau. The regression and roll forecast models are founded. Through the research and realization about the problem of revenue, the thesis explores some methods which can be feasible. So it brings forward a new angle of view. The result of the thesis certainly has reference value to revenue prognostic system, especially to the method of regression forecast and roll forecast.