Mine Seismic Activity And Chaotic Time Series Analysis

Dongguashan applied micro seismic technology to monitor, It is rock mass, whether seismicity phenomenon may cause pressure, the position of time and unstable degree that people care for, if we can predict earthquake activity of future time specific situation, it is concluded that the basic laws of seismic activity changes to the miner's life safety and mine safety production is of significance. With Considering the sustainable development of mine and the safety of staff downhole, it is quite necessary to strengthen the basic research:mine seismicity analysis and its seismic activity prediction. we applied quantitative seismology and statistics for energy - seismic moment characteristics, frequency-magnitude rule statistical analyses; Then we recoveried the attractor about mine seismicity of the time series by phase space reconstruction theory of chaos time series, and found the law of original system from the attracter recoveried; Finally we simulated and forecast mine earthquake intensity by RBF neural network method, achieved the desired results. In this paper the main research results are as follows:(1) quantitative description of the earthquake:the earthquake events and seismic activity is quantitatively described; Discuss dongguashan copper mine earthquake activity in frequency - magnitudes, energy seismic moment distribution, found that both exist two kinds of distribution mode;(2) study of mine seismicity phase space reconstruction. It briefly introduced the chaos, the essence of studies the phase space reconstruction of time delay and embedding dimension two parameters selection problem in delay time selecting choose autocorrelation method is used to determine the embedding dimension, selecting, using a saturated correlation dimension method is used to determine. Through calculating found seismic moment and the earthquake energy time delay of basic in 2-3 between, embedding dimension all under 6-8 dimension. Through refactoring reconstruction of seismic energy phase point occurs when the two-dimensional reconstruction energy found "double apices distribution" mode, the 3d reconstruction time appear "three peaks distribution mode;(3) studied how judgement mine earthquake activity time sequence of chaotic nature. Analyzes the correlation dimension Lyapunov index, two important characteristics of chaotic systems, from quantitative Angle on the amount of time series chaotic characteristic judging, judgement suggests we mine earthquake activity time series is indeed a chaotic time series;(4) research for mine earthquake activity forecast time:according to the calculated results show that some Lyapunov index time-bound events can achieve maximum forecast time 23 days this to our future forecast research has certain reference value,(5) establish a chaotic time series of RBF neural network predictive model, and for some time, space range of seismic activity carried out simulation experiment:because has ruled mining seismic activity have chaos nature, then the chaotic time series prediction methods - neural network predictive model establishing prediction models, projections show, barring some data points we predict the results with actual conditions are consistent.