The Nesting Gambling Analysis Under Urgent Scattered

Since the natural disaster such as the hurricane, flood, earthquake and so on always all has been one of barriers which the humanity can't oversteps; Accurate and reliable evacuation strategy can make a large number of evacuees quickly, safely out of danger. As the social system more complicated, often may change happened in event state under one kind or various factor effect after unexpected event, and the appropriate disposal method will change accordingly. This article implements the dynamic emergency management to the emergency.In this paper, game theory point of view of the emergency evacuation during emergencies and evacuation decision-makers as well as the evacuees to nested game analysis, research on emergency evacuation programs. And establish the corresponding model.First, use a nested game theory studies the issue of emergency evacuation. Analyze the special game between unexpected events and the evacuation, the game between them is a special kind of zero-sum game. Use game theory to analyze of the decision makers. At the same time the evacuation decision-makers and the evacuees have game relationship; this relationship is the nested game between emergencies and evacuation decision-makers. Secondly, based on the uncertainty of unexpected events and dynamic features, using Bayes rule to amends to a priori probability for dynamic decision-making methods respectively, using Bayes rule constantly dynamic correction phase of the results according to the information available and the changes in adjusting tactics. As the road network is instability and mutation, this paper gives an emergency evacuation road network reliability studies, and anti-clogging evacuation networks analysis.Once more, establish a nested game model and dynamic decision-making in game theory based on the game between uncertainty of unexpected events and evacuation decision-makers, as well as the policy-maker with by the dispersing the evacuees respective benefit relations. Finally, optimize the model in GA in the determination of the program during the evacuation process, and designed program to develop procedures for evacuation; Through an empirical analysis of example, analyze to understand the convergence process, and prove the model and algorithm to be rationality; The above research can be accurate and reasonable decision-makers in the formulation of an emergency when the emergency evacuation strategy for decision-making basis.